Monday’s MLB slate has some great divisional matchups on the board, including the Yankees taking on the Orioles for the first time this season. The Bronx Bombers are coming off a doubleheader sweep on Sunday that helped them improve to 17-11 on the year, while the Orioles are last in the division at 10-17 after being swept on the road in Detroit. Monday’s first pitch is scheduled for 6:35 p.m. ET, and let’s run down a few of my best bets, picks and predictions for Yankees at Orioles on 4/28/25.
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Here is a look at my best bets for Yankees at Orioles on 4/28/25.
Best Bets for Yankees at Orioles on 4/28/25 on DraftKings Sportsbook
Tomoyuki Sugano Strikeouts under 3.5 (-140)
In his five starts this season, Sugano has totaled nine strikeouts in 28 innings. He has only gone over this strikeout line once in his five starts this season, and that was on the road against the Royals back in early April.
Sugano has pitched seven innings in each of his last two starts and been fairly effective against the Guardians and Nationals, but even in those two outings, he had three strikeouts and one strikeout, respectively.
The 35-year-old MLB rookie has been able to limit damage and avoid big innings in his last few starts, but his strikeout upside is very limited, especially against the Yankees, who have plenty of power (more on that below). There are lots of ways to pick against Sugano, but this is the safest one that still brings solid returns in my Yankees Orioles best bets for Monday.
Whether he gets shelled or continues to dance out of trouble, either way, it feels like this is a great place to hit the under on strikeouts.
Will Warren 1st Strikeout Thrown (+180)
This is an aggressive quick-hitter to start with out of the gate on Monday night, but it has a solid chance of paying off because of Sugano’s low strikeout rate. The big risk is that Sugano gets to pitch first, but since he doesn’t typically record many strikeouts, Warren may get a shot against the top of the Orioles order to log a strikeout.
He has recorded a strikeout in the first inning of four of his five starts and has 21 strikeouts in 20 2/3 innings on the season. While the race to three strikeouts for this game isn’t on the board, this is a fun quick-hitter that has favorable odds on Monday for Warren if you think Sugano will not be able to strike out any Yankees in the first.
Yankees Total Bases over 13.5 (-120)
The Yankees as a team have 440 total bases on the season with an MLB-leading 45 home runs in their 28 games. They are averaging 15.7 total bases per game on the season, and their matchup against Sugano should set them up for more fireworks on Monday night.
The Yankees had 19 and 21 total bases to go well over this line in both of their wins on Sunday. They have also gone over this mark in five of their last seven games.
Another reason this over is in my Yankees Orioles best bets on Monday’s slate is that the Yankees will definitely bat nine times as the visiting team. They typically beat up on the Orioles at Camden Yards, and since I like them as one of my top MLB stacks for the day, I’m expecting plenty of runs and extra-base hits.
