The Padres had the best record in baseball just over a week ago, but they have fallen on hard times, going 2-6 in their last eight games. They are in danger of being swept at home by the Rays, who have won four straight road games and are up to 13-14 on the season.
The Rays will look to get back to .500 by giving the ball to Zack Littell on Sunday afternoon, while the Padres will hope that Randy Vasquez can serve as the stopper and get their squad back in the win column.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Padres are slight -115 favorites on the moneyline in the final game of this series. Let’s dig into this matchup and break down everything you need to know and make a prediction of how Sunday’s late afternoon game will play out.
Padres vs. Rays prediction, preview
The Padres’ bats have suddenly gone silent over the last few games as their lineup has been thinned by injury over the last week. Without Luis Arraez (concussion), Jake Cronenworth (rib), Jackson Merrill (hamstring) and Jason Heyward (knee), they have been relying on Oscar Gonzalez, Tirso Ornelas and Jose Iglesias to fill in the gaps. In the last three games, though, they have managed to score just a single run. They have not scored more than four runs since 10 days ago when they beat the Cubs.
The Padres will have to try and get going against Littell, who has not pitched horribly but has still managed to lose each of his five starts. He is 0-5 with a 5.28 ERA and 5.90 FIP, but he only allowed four runs in 12 innings over his last two starts. He doesn’t get a lot of strikeouts but has been able to contain damage for the most part aside from a seven-run outing against the Angels.
He’ll be opposed by Randy Vasquez, who is 1-2 with a 3.97 ERA and 4.62 FIP. He gave up six runs to the Tigers in his last start, but before that, he had given up two earned runs or fewer in four straight outings.
On Friday night, the Rays won 1-0 behind a masterful performance from Shane Baz and got their only run on a sac fly from Yandy Diaz. On Saturday, Ryan Pepiot gave up three hits in six innings, allowing no runs until the sixth when Tyler Wade tripled and scored to start the inning. That was the only run the Padres scored, though, ultimately losing 4-1.
Padres vs. Rays pick, best bet
In this contest, I like the under since the total is set at over/under 8.5 runs. While they are not overpowering, both starting pitchers have been more effective than their ERAs show. On the other side, both offenses have had issues lately. The Padres have 10 runs in their last six games while hitting only .189 as a team with an ugly 61 wRC+. The Rays have been a little better but have only scored 27 runs in six games (4.5 per game) while hitting .212 as a team with an 81 wRC+. Both of the first two games in this series have been under this run total, and the Rays have been under this total in four of their last six games while the Padres have been under it in six of their last seven.
Best Bet: Under 8.5 total runs (-112)
Neither offense has been clicking on all cylinders, and the pitchers should be able to limit them enough to produce another tough, low-scoring contest in San Diego.
Strong Lean: Randy Vasquez under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-130)
Vasquez went under this total of earned runs allowed in four of his five starts this season, with the only exception being his road start in Detroit in his most recent outing. The Padres probably won’t give him a long leash since they’ll be desperate to get back in the win column.
