Tonight, the UFC is in Kansas City, Missouri, and No. 7 Ian Machado Garry headlines the event against No. 13 Carlos Prates. This is the UFC’s third trip to Kansas City and first since 2023. This is Garry’s first appearance on a Fight Night since May 2023.
The Prelims start at 6:00 p.m. ET on ESPN+, with the Main Card beginning at 9:00 p.m. ET. Here are my two best bets for UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates.
Ian Machado Garry Moneyline (-155)
Machado Garry is coming off his first career loss to Shavkat Rakhmonov at UFC 310 in December 2024. He is now 8-1 in the UFC and is facing another supremely talented rising star in the welterweight division, Carlos Prates. Garry’s nickname is “The Future,” and a win in this bout is necessary if he still wants to claim that name.
Both athletes are elite strikers in this fight, and although Prates has more power, Garry is the better all-around striker. Garry lands 0.33 more significant strikes per minute than Prates while absorbing only 2.82 more minutes from opponents. Prates is 4-0 in the UFC with four finishes in the first two rounds.
But we have never seen Prates in a challenging and competitive fight that requires the fighter to dig deep. Machado Garry proved against Rakhmonov that he is a warrior and can bounce back after receiving damage. With Garry’s strength of schedule and five-round experience in the UFC, “The Future” has the necessary tools to win this fight.
Machado Garry vs. Prates Under 3.5 Rounds (-110)
Prates has 21 career MMA wins, with 19 of them coming via submission or knockout. He is one of the best finishers in the division. Prates has 10 straight knockout victories, and all of them have come in the first two rounds. Also, 24 of Prates’ 27 fights have ended in under 3.5 rounds. Win or lose, Prates is always in an exciting fight, and it’s unlikely to go the distance.
Yes, Garry’s previous three victories were by decision, but he has eight finishes in his career and is due for a knockout. After his first career loss, Garry must be aggressive and secure an impressive win. On DraftKings Sportsbook, this fight is -110 to go under 3.5 rounds.
