All eyes will be on the Golden State Warriors vs. Houston Rockets as this matchup puts a bow on today’s four-game playoff slate. Plenty is still up in the air with the series tied at one win each.
Most notably, the status of Jimmy Butler remains uncertain. The six-time All-Star took a hard fall in the previous game and limped to the locker room shortly after. He is officially listed as questionable with a pelvic contusion, and this is worth monitoring leading up to tip-off. Golden State’s entire outlook on the season changed following Butler’s addition, and his availability will surely impact the Warriors’ chances tonight.
With his status still up in the air, the Warriors enter as 3.5-point favorites and -162 on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Rockets hold +136 odds of getting the win, and the game total is set at 205 points.
With the stage set in this intriguing Western Conference battle, here are my favorite prop bets on the slate.
Alperen Sengun Over 34.5 Points, Rebounds & Assists (-125)
The biggest concern coming into this series for Golden State was its ability to hold up on the interior. This has been put on full display through the opening two games. Houston won the rebounding battle 52-36 in the series opener and 47-33 in the second game. Alperen Sengun has been a huge part of this effort and has had success as a scorer and passer as well.
Sengun tallied 36 combined points, rebounds and assists in the series opener and 40 in Game 2. This comes after a regular season in which the Turkish big man averaged 19.1 points, 10.3 rebounds and 4.9 assists per game. Playing out of Sengun in the post has proven to be one of Houston’s more reliable offensive attacks throughout the season, and this is especially the case in this series. Golden State is limited in its frontcourt talent, and Sengun has a notable size advantage over Draymond Green. In addition, Jalen Green is one of the highest variance players in the NBA, and this is set to be the first road playoff game of his career. He has had one excellent and one concerning playoff performance thus far, and it is fair to have some doubts as the Rockets travel into a difficult arena to play.
Look for the Rockets to rely on Sengun as a calming presence in front of what is sure to be a spirited crowd. Expect his usage to increase and for the big man to continue delivering. He has had no trouble recording over 34.5 combined points, rebounds and assists in the opening two games, so look for this to continue vs. Golden State tonight.
Draymond Green Over 6.5 Rebounds (-110)
The Warriors are asking a lot of Draymond Green in this series as he continues to battle with Sengun and Steven Adams on the boards. He has not fared well thus far, pulling in five and six rebounds in the opening two games of the series. This comes after a season in which the four-time champion averaged 6.1 rebounds per game during the regular season, his lowest output since 2013-14.
It does not take much to fire up Green, and Dillon Brooks surely did enough to poke the bear with his “dirty player” comments this week. While I likely would be writing up Green to record a technical foul if it were offered on DraftKings Sportsbook, expect this to show in his play as well. Green tallied over 6.5 rebounds in 30 games this season, including 11 rebounds against the Rockets in a regular-season matchup.
This outlook could also change depending on the status of Jimmy Butler. The former Heat star averaged 5.5 rebounds per game during his time with the Warriors and added seven rebounds in the series opener. If Butler is unavailable or limited, Green will need to pick up the slack. Houston leaves plenty to be desired from an efficiency standpoint, ranking 21st in field-goal percentage and 21st in three-point percentage as a team, so there should be plenty of rebounding opportunities. Expect the Chase Center to have plenty of energy in the building tonight and for Green to put his imprints all over this game with at least seven rebounds tonight.
Fred VanVleet Under 2.5 Made Three-Pointers (-135)
There was great value in bringing Fred VanVleet to the Rockets as a veteran presence as they began to flip the switch into win-now mode. But he has dropped in the offensive pecking order of this young squad, with this on full display in the postseason. VanVleet averaged 14.1 points, 5.6 assists and 3.7 rebounds across the regular season, shooting 34.5% from beyond the three-point arc on 7.7 perimeter shots per game.
He shot 2-for-13 from beyond the three-point arc in the series opener and 1-for-7 from deep in the second matchup. This has been the least efficient shooting season in his last seven years and the second-worst three-point shooting percentage of his career. Golden State possesses a high-level defense that will continue to make life difficult for the scrappy guard.
Even if he logs significant minutes and gets a high volume of three-point attempts, expect VanVleet’s struggles to continue. His combined 3-for-20 so far in the series is outright concerning, and life will not get any easier in front of the Golden State home crowd. Getting two made three-pointers as a cushion makes me plenty comfortable, and I expect him to be held under this number for the third straight postseason game.
