On Saturday, Major League Baseball breaks out an all-day buffet with 17 games on the schedule, including a pair of doubleheaders after washouts on Friday. The featured MLB DFS slate on Saturday night closes out the day with a juicy five-game slate for dessert. The contests get underway at 7:10 p.m. ET with two games starting shortly after 8:00 p.m. and two more after 9:00 p.m. In this post, we’ll look at all 10 teams on the board on Saturday night and pinpoint some of my favorite MLB DFS picks to consider for your lineup.
There are some weather trouble spots earlier in the day, but the five-game night slate is clear of weather issues. It also doesn’t have any extremely tilted environments for offense since Coors Field and Sutter Health Park are used earlier in the day. While there aren’t any true “Aces” on the mound, there are some very solid starting pitching matchups to target and some others to avoid. Let’s break it all down in my MLB DFS picks.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $88K Relay Throw [$20K to 1st] (Night)
PITCHER
Stud
Luis Castillo, Seattle Mariners vs. Miami Marlins, $8,600: The two big pitching names to consider in your MLB DFS picks on Saturday are Castillo and Dylan Cease ($9,000). Castillo is a little cheaper and has a better matchup as the Mariners look to even their series with the Marlins. In his five starts this season, Castillo is 2-2 with a 4.44 ERA, 4.24 FIP, 1.59 WHIP and 7.9 K/9. While those numbers are “meh” overall, he has earned at least 11 DraftKings points in four of his five starts this season and been very good at home.
At T-Mobile Park, he has a 2.12 ERA and 4.03 FIP. In his last two home starts, he earned a season-high 21.6 DraftKings points against the Tigers and followed that up with 19.1 DraftKings points against the Astros.
He’ll look to post another good home start against Miami, who has improved on offense this season but still ranks in the top 10 in K% and just below league average in runs scored and most other categories.
Value
Grant Holmes, Atlanta Braves at Arizona Diamondbacks, $6,200: Holmes is extremely affordable coming into his start at Chase Field against the Dbacks. He struggled in his first few starts of the season but has found his footing, earning 16.8, 20.9 and 23.4 fantasy points in his last three starts.
He got the win in each of his last two games by beating the Blue Jays and Twins. He had a season-high seven strikeouts against the Twins last Sunday and only allowed four hits on his way to a season-high 23.4 fantasy points. Holmes has continued to struggle with walks but has not given up much hard contact since his start against the Dodgers back in March.
The Dbacks’ offense is solid, but they have struggled over the last week, managing 3.7 runs per game and hitting just .197 with a .290 wOBA. That .290 team wOBA is the sixth-lowest in the MLB over the last week. It’s not quite a slump yet, but it does make them not a “must avoid” matchup on such a small slate. The upside Holmes brings at barely over $6,000 makes him a solid value option in my MLB DFS picks.
INFIELD
Stud
Austin Riley, Atlanta Braves at Arizona Diamondbacks, $4,900: The Braves offense has started to show some signs of life over the last week, and Riley has continued to hit the ball extremely well. He has actually hit the ball hard most of the season but ran into rough luck in the early going. He is hitting .304 on the year with an MLB-leading 15.6% barrel rate per plate appearance.
Riley went 2-for-4 with two RBI and 12 fantasy points in the series opener to extend his hitting streak to six games. He’s 10-for-24 (.417) over that streak with one homer and a 57.9% hard-hit rate. Riley also has a good track record against Saturday’s starter Merrill Kelly ($7,700), who he has gone 4-for-9 against in the past with a double and a pair of home runs.
Stud
Tommy Edman, Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates, $4,200: Edman has smashed eight homers in his first 26 games this season, hitting .253 with a .283 ISO and a .352 wOBA. He has already hit more home runs this year than he did all of last season and is on pace to set a new season-high before we get to June.
Even though his power is higher than at other points in his career, Statcast metrics indicate it’s very legitimate. He actually has a higher xwOBA, xSLG and xBA. His 50% hard-hit rate shows his surge is no fluke, and he’ll be on the right side of Mitch Keller’s ($7,000) splits on Saturday night since he’ll swing around to bat left-handed. Keller has struggled against lefties but has been very effective against righties, so remember to build around Dodgers lefties in your MLB DFS picks for Saturday night.
Value
Agustin Ramirez, Miami Marlins at Seattle Mariners, $2,700: Way back at the beginning of spring training, I highlighted Ramirez in one of my very first breakout pieces of the season. The Marlins acquired Ramirez as the main prospect in the Jazz Chisholm Jr. trade, and he was ranked as the No. 4 prospect in Miami’s system. He has always had raw power and great exit velocities but has also struggled making consistent contact, leading to a high strikeout rate and inconsistent batting average.
He was called up after hitting .254 with three home runs, five stolen bases and .348 wOBA with the Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp. In his three games since his promotion, he has gone 7-for-10 with multiple hits in each of his three games. He homered and had 21 fantasy points on Friday, and he’s averaging 18.3 fantasy points per game. He has the raw potential to continue crushing and immediately becomes one of the Marlins’ top fantasy plays, especially at a tough catcher position.
OUTFIELD
Stud
Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres vs. Tampa Bay Rays, $6,200: On the season, Tatis is hitting a blistering .340 with eight home runs, seven stolen bases and an average of 12.1 fantasy points per game. He ranks sixth in the MLB in barrels per plate appearance and lands in the top-25 in hard-hit rate. While his .443 wOBA is solid, his xwOBA of .464 shows that his quality of contact has been even better than that number reflects. Tatis is 13-for-40 with an average of 12.5 fantasy points per game over his last 10 games as he and the Padres try to bounce back from back-to-back shutout losses on Wednesday and Friday.
He should be in a good matchup against Rays starter Ryan Pepiot ($7,300), who has a high strikeout ceiling but has allowed eight home runs in his 28 innings this season along with an 11.8% barrel rate. He has allowed multiple home runs in each of his last three starts, and Tatis typically smashes at home. He’s a great anchor for your lineup Saturday night.
Stud
Michael Harris II, Atlanta Braves at Arizona Diamondbacks, $4,100: While Alex Verdugo ($3,300) brings upside of his own, he also helps the Braves by allowing Harris to slide out of the leadoff spot, where he struggled earlier this season. In the seven games since Verdugo returned, Harris averaged 10.3 fantasy points per game with multiple hits and double-digit fantasy points in each of his last two games.
Value
Drew Waters, Kansas City Royals vs. Houston Astros, $2,600: Waters was in my bargain plays for Friday and he had two more hits on his way to 12 fantasy points. He has multiple hits in four of his last five games, going 9-for-18 (.500) with two doubles, a triple, a home run and an average of 12.2 fantasy points over that stretch. He hasn’t faced many lefties in his time in the majors, but Framber Valdez ($8,800) hasn’t been unhittable this season, giving up nine runs on 17 hits over 10 innings in his last two outings. Waters has a high enough ceiling to be a strong bargain option in the outfield again on Saturday. Time to go back to the well for more Waters!
