What is going on the AL East? Baseball’s “toughest” division has been underwhelming to begin 2025, with the Blue Jays, the Rays and the Orioles all below .500 at the start of action on Friday. The Red Sox haven’t been all that great, either, sitting at 14-13 and in possession of a negative run differential.
Really, the lone bright spot has been the Yankees, who have fought through significant injuries to their pitching staff to win 15 of their first 25 games. They’ll be looking for victory No. 16 this evening, going up against a Toronto squad that has dropped five in a row.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, New York is a -135 favorite on the moneyline on Friday. Let’s dig into this matchup and break down everything you need to know.
Blue Jays vs. Yankees prediction, preview
The pitching matchup is probably a good place to start with this one. In 2018, a matchup between Jose Berrios and Carlos Carrasco would have been must-see television. Now? It’s a more like a battle of attrition.
After getting rocked on Opening Day, Berrios has pretty much been his usual self, pitching to a 3.80 ERA with a 4.46 FIP. The right-hander has two quality starts in his last four outings, but walks have been an issue. Berrios enters Friday’s tilt with a 10.7% walk rate — his highest mark since all the way in his rookie campaign in 2016. That’s a problem in general, but it’s a massive red flag when you’re also surrendering 1.88 opponent home runs per nine. Berrios pitching inside Yankee Stadium to a New York squad that leads the league in long balls (41) is a scary thought for Jays fans.
The good news for Toronto fans is that Carrasco might just be the worst pitcher currently getting starts every fifth day in the majors. Don’t get me wrong. I love Cookie. But Father Time comes for us all, and Carrasco’s best days are far behind him. If not for injuries to Gerrit Cole and Luis Gil, Carrasco would not be in this rotation. Heck, he might not be on this roster. Across 20.2 innings in 2025, the 38-year-old sports a 6.53 ERA and a 5.73 FIP. He combines an eighth percentile whiff rate (17.4%) with a 14th percentile barrel rate (13.2%), which is why he’s given up five home runs already this season. The Jays haven’t hit much lately — they own an .121 ISO and an 86 wRC+ over the last two weeks — but even they should be able to do some damage off Carrasco.
Blue Jays vs. Yankees pick, best bet
The Jays are 9-15-1 to the over so far this season, so I am a little hesitant to suggest this is going to be an absolute barnburner with crooked innings abound. Still, these two starters taking the mound at this specific ball park seems like a recipe for some runs. When hitting at Yankee Stadium in 2025, New York is slashing .260/.348/.546 as a team with a .286 ISO and a 155 wRC+. Even if Toronto’s bats don’t wake up, the Yankees should do enough by themselves to make this contest high-scoring.
Best Bet: Over 9 (-115)
Two home run prone pitchers take the mound in the Bronx? Expect fireworks.
Strong Lean: Carlos Carrasco Over 2.5 Earned Runs (-105)
This prop has hit in four of the RHP’s five starts, despite him facing 20 or more opposing batters only twice.
