I think any baseball fan with a pulse gets excited every time Paul Skenes is set to take the mound, but tonight’s game means just a little more. The Pirates will head west to take on the Dodgers, which means we get a matchup between the best young pitcher in MLB and the defending World Series Champions.
Are you pumped? Because I am pumped.
Let’s break down the game and the betting angles on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Pirates at Dodgers prediction, preview
Perception is such a powerful thing. I think if you asked most people — specifically anyone who spent a first-round pick on Skenes in a season-long fantasy draft — they’d tell you the right-hander has been a little underwhelming to start 2025. However, while Skenes’ 2.87 ERA is about a run higher than his mark from his rookie season and his 25.4% strikeout rate isn’t quite elite, he’s still been masterful in his 31.1 innings of work. Skenes’ 2.00 FIP and a 2.06 xERA are actually improvements on 2024, he’s just been a little unlucky with RISP, which has led to a microscopic 56.9% strand rate. That will normalize across a larger sample and Skenes’ ERA will soon be pristine once again.
The most interesting aspect of Friday’s contest is who Skenes is somewhat overshadowing. There’s a case to be made that Yoshinobu Yamamoto has been the best starter in baseball through a month of play, as the 26-year-old has maintained an immaculate 0.93 ERA over five starts and 29.0 innings. Yoshinobu is using his splitter more often in 2025 and that’s led to a higher swinging strike rate (13.7%) and a higher strikeout rate (35.2%). Coming into tonight’s tilt, Yoshinobu hasn’t allowed a single earned run in April, as he’s pitched 19.0 innings over three outings. Needless to say, the Pirates’ bats are in tough this evening.
Still, I’d like to give Pittsburgh a little credit where it’s due. After a horrendous first few weeks in terms of scoring output, the Pirates have actually been swinging the lumber quite well over the past week. In that six-game stretch, the team is hitting .301 with a 127 wRC+ that ranks fourth in the majors. The reason for the turn around has been simple: Oneil Cruz and Bryan Reynolds have woken up. Reynolds is batting .444 in his last 29 plate appearances, while Cruz has multiple hits in each of his last three games. He also hit a ball to the moon on Wednesday against the Angels.
Pirates vs. Dodgers pick, best bet
The temptation to back Skenes and the Pirates here is strong, despite the fact that the Dodgers have the obvious advantage in the run production department. Heck, they might even have the hotter starting pitcher. Still, Skenes is an animal, and you’re not going to get many chances to back a pitcher this good at +180 on the moneyline. It’s a long season. Los Angeles is amazing, but its also not infallible. The Dodgers have actually dropped eight of their last 15 games. So you’re saying there’s a chance?
Best Bet: Paul Skenes Under 1.5 Earned Runs (+110)
His strand rate normalization starts now. Skenes pitches deep into this game and only allows one run.
Strong Lean: Pirates ML (+180)
Pittsburgh’s bats are heating up and they do just enough to push their squad to a narrow victory on the road.
