The opening round of the playoffs has hit a pivotal point. Looking across the league, there are three 2-0 series leads, two series tied 1-1, two 2-1 series leads, and one 3-0 deficit. The race to four wins is a battle for every remaining team, and three games will take place on tonight’s NBA slate as the field narrows.
Starting at 7:05, the Orlando Magic will host the Boston Celtics and are looking to climb out of their 2-0 series deficit. Jayson Tatum missed the first playoff game of his career in the previous game due to the bone bruise he is dealing with on his wrist. Tatum has been considered day-to-day with the injury, and there is increased optimism he could make his return to the floor, but with a two-game series lead, it also would not be a shock if the defending champions are overly cautious with the star forward. Boston enters as 4.5-point favorites and -198 on the moneyline while the Magic hold +164 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook of getting the victory.
An hour later, the Milwaukee Bucks and Indiana Pacers will face off in a series where the bad blood and hatred between the two teams are evident. Milwaukee dropped the first two games in Indiana and will be desperate for a win tonight in their first game back home. The Bucks enter as five-point favorites and -205 odds on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook while the Pacers hold +170 odds of getting the outright victory.
The final matchup of the night will be between the Los Angeles Lakers and the Minnesota Timberwolves, who split the opening two games of the series. This matchup will be taking place in Minnesota, and the Timberwolves are three-point favorites and -148 on the moneyline. The Lakers hold +124 odds of getting the win on DraftKings Sportsbook.
With three games of high-intensity playoff action set to take place, here are my favorite player prop bets for Friday’s slate of games.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Over 1.5 Made Three-Pointers (+114)
There are more prominent names that catch more heat, but there is a strong case for Kentavious Caldwell-Pope being the most disappointing free agent signing of the past offseason. The two-time champion was brought in on a three-year, $66 million contract to fix the Magic’s shooting struggles. Orlando finished the year shooting 31.8% from beyond the three-point arc as a team, which was the worst rate in the league.
Caldwell-Pope shot 34.2% from the perimeter this season, which is his worst individual percentage since 2015-16. Even still, he attempted 4.3 three-point attempts per game and averaged 1.5 perimeter makes per game. The two-time champion has made over 1.5 three-pointers in 32 regular-season games and in one of the two playoff games. Caldwell-Pope shot 0-for-6 from beyond the three-point arc in the previous game after shooting 2-for-4 in Game 1. With the series now returning home to Orlando, Caldwell-Pope has a chance to change all perceptions of how his season has gone.
Even with his struggles, Caldwell-Pope logged 29.6 minutes per game during the regular season and 34 or more minutes in both of the playoff games. Boston has outscored Orlando by 33 points from beyond the three-point arc through the opening two games and needs to combat this. Caldwell-Pope has shown to be a playoff riser in years past, playing a key role on two championship teams and making over 1.5 three-pointers in 37 playoff games. With the home crowd behind him, plenty of minutes available, and the Magic desperate, look for Caldwell-Pope to right the wrongs of the season and knock down a pair of three-pointers tonight.
Damian Lillard to Record Over 23.5 Points (-110)
Speaking of desperation, the Milwaukee Bucks find themselves backed against the wall far sooner than they hoped. Down 2-0 in the series and with the whispers of Giannis Antetokounmpo potentially moving on growing louder, these could be a fateful final few games. Damian Lillard returned to the court in the previous game to help this effort. He missed the final 14 games of the regular season and the playoff opener due to his blood clot issue, but was thankfully cleared by medical personnel. The rust was evident as Lillard was limited to 14 points and seven assists on 4-for-13 shooting and 2-for-8 from beyond the three-point arc in his first game back. His 13 shot attempts were tied for the seventh-fewest he shot in a game all season.
It was notable that Lillard logged 37 minutes of play, which should be looked at as a huge positive. He certainly did not look like the best version of himself, but these teams have been off since Tuesday, and it takes some real live game action to fully snap out of things. With two full days off to rest or ramp up his workouts, expect Lillard to look more like the nine-time All-Star he has proven to be. This season, Lillard averaged 24.9 points and scored over 23.5 points in 34 of the 58 games he played.
If Milwaukee is to have any sort of shot at coming back in this series, they must win tonight and will need help from Lillard. In addition, he has performed much better at home this season, averaging 25.6 points per game in these matchups and shooting 46.3% from the field and 40.1% on three-pointers compared to 42.9% and 34.5% on the road. Expect an energy to be in the building from the home crowd, and Lillard to lead the charge by playing with a necessary level of desperation. Count on his shot volume increasing and for Lillard to deliver by recording over 23.5 points tonight in this rivalry matchup tonight.
Julius Randle Over 30.5 Points, Rebounds, & Assists (-125)
There has been plenty of attention paid to the major stars such as Luka Doncic, LeBron James, and Anthony Edwards in this series. But Julius Randle has been really impressive through the opening two games, with his size and strength standing out against this weak Lakers frontcourt. Randle is coming off a 27-point, six-assist, and four-rebound performance in the previous game, with his style of play looking to be problematic against this Lakers team. Across the regular season, Randle averaged 18.7 points, 7.1 rebounds, and 4.7 assists per game.
While there are no doubts regarding the quality of play from the Lakers’ stars, it is also increasingly clear the lack of trust JJ Redick has in the rest of the roster. Los Angeles has not had a chance to properly build out a roster around Doncic and James due to the midseason nature of the trade, and this is becoming increasingly concerning. Doncic, James, and Austin Reaves each clocked 40+ minutes in the previous game while Rui Hachimura and Dorian Finney-Smith played 34+ minutes. No other player on the roster clocked more than 20 minutes.
Randle wears you down throughout a game with his ability to put his shoulder down and create space proving tiresome to guard. This is a series in which his production should continue to grow the more games that are played. For all the critiques he has gotten as a poor playoff performer, Randle benefits greatly from having Anthony Edwards alongside him to attract the primary defensive attention. Expect Minnesota to continue relying on him as a change-of-pace offensive weapon and for Randle to continue having success on the interior. He is plenty capable as a passer if double-teams are sent his direction, and the nine total rebounds through his opening two games feel like an outlier based on his standard of production. Expect Randle to lead the charge as Edwards continues to see the bulk of the defensive attention and for him to record over 30.5 combined points, rebounds, and assists in his first playoff action in front of the Minnesota faithful.
