No love has been lost between the Milwaukee Bucks and the Indiana Pacers. This Eastern Conference battle has brought plenty of intensity, making for the type of playoff basketball we expect.
Indiana has managed to come out on top in each of the first two games, jumping out to a 2-0 series lead. The series will now return to Milwaukee in what must be viewed as a must-win matchup, with no team ever coming back from a 3-0 series deficit in NBA history.
The Bucks enter as 5.5-point favorites and -205 on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Pacers hold +170 odds of getting the win, and the game total is set at 230 points.
With the stage set in this intriguing Eastern Conference battle, here are my favorite prop bets on the slate.
Damian Lillard Over 23.5 Points (+100)
There were concerns that Damian Lillard would not be able to return for the playoffs at all. But after missing the final 14 games of the regular season and the opening playoff matchup, the nine-time All-Star was cleared of his blood clot issue and suited up in Game 2. There was some clear rust due to the time off, with Lillard being limited to 14 points and seven assists on 4-for-13 shooting and 2-for-8 from beyond the three-point arc. The 13 shot attempts Lillard took are tied for his seventh-fewest shot attempts in a game all season.
However, the biggest positive should be that Lillard was able to play 37 minutes in the matchup. He certainly did not look like the best version of himself, but these teams have had two full days off and allowing Lillard the opportunity to rest or ramp up his workouts to get back to playing his best. This season, Lillard averaged 24.9 points per game and tallied over 23.5 points in 34 of the 58 (58.6%) of the games he played. Lillard also had more success playing at home this season. He averaged 25.6 points per game at home, shooting 46.3% from the field and 40.1% on three-point attempts. In contrast, he averaged 24.2 points per game on the road, shooting 42.9% from the field and 34.5% on three-point attempts.
If the Bucks are to have a chance of winning this series or just tonight’s game, it is going to require an improved performance from Lillard. Expect there to be a high level of energy in the building and for Lillard to lead the charge in playing with the necessary level of desperation. Expect him to have kicked off the rust from his time off and seen an increased shot volume by recording over 2.5 points, just as he has in 37 playoff games already.
Brook Lopez Under 12.5 Points & Rebounds (-115)
At 37 years old, Father Time has made up some ground on the race with Brook Lopez. It has been a long and successful career for the former All-Star, but he has not moved the same on the floor this season, with this being especially evident in this series matchup. Indiana is loaded with young, athletic players who get up and down the floor with ease. This has forced Milwaukee to limit Lopez’s minutes, with him logging 21 minutes in the first game and 16 minutes in the previous matchup.
Looking at his production during the regular season, Lopez averaged 13.0 points and 5.0 rebounds per game across 31.8 minutes of action. He was held to under 12.5 combined points and rebounds in just 22 of the 80 games this season. But expect this matchup to change his outlook notably. Lopez finished with nine points and four rebounds in the first game but just eight points and one rebound in the previous game.
Expect the 16 minutes played in the previous game to be indicative of the game plan moving forward, and Lopez to continue to see his opportunity reduced. Simply put, this is a tough matchup for the seven-footer, and Milwaukee must adjust as such. If there was a minute prop for Lopez, I very well may be writing this up, but look for him to be held to under 12.5 combined points and rebounds tonight.
Tyrese Haliburton Under 18.5 Points (-120)
On the other side of the point guard battle sits Tyrese Haliburton. It was a bit of a down statistical season for the Pacers star, who averaged 18.6 points and 9.2 assists. However, he finished the season strong and is looking to carry this into the postseason. It has been a mixed bag of results to this point, with Haliburton scoring 10 points in the opening playoff game and 20 in the previous matchup while tallying 12 assists in each.
Expect the Bucks to increase their defensive intensity in this matchup and for the physicality to be notable. Haliburton is an inconsistent scorer who looks borderline disinterested in scoring at times. He was held to under 18.5 points in 39 of the 73 regular-season games, including three of the four matchups with the Bucks.
Indiana has other players that can score, but count on there being a clear emphasis on cutting off Haliburton as the head of the snake. He is a player who feeds off energy, and it will be a bit of a different outlook playing in enemy territory. With Haliburton being held to under 18.5 points in four of the six matchups already this season and this being the first home Bucks playoff game, I like the defense to get the better of him and for Haliburton to be held under 18.5 points tonight.
