NASCAR returns to super-speedway racing for the third time this season at Talladega, a volatile drafting track known for intense pack racing. Every driver has a shot at victory, making this the perfect week to chase long shots. As always, balance data with instinct. Here are the best bets for the NASCAR Cup Series Jack Link’s 500 at Talladega.
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Race Winner — Jack Link’s 500
John Hunter Nemechek (+7000)
Sample size matters little in super-speedway racing. Even if JHN had 100 pack races under his belt, little would change—some drivers simply excel at this style of racing. Whether after 20, 30, or 50 races at a plate track, driver stats remain consistent: some thrive, others struggle. In 11 super-speedway races, Nemechek has five top-10 finishes (45%), the second-best top-10 rate in the field. Top-10s aren’t wins, but they’re close. Survival is key for a long-shot victory, as the saying goes: “To finish first, you must first finish.”
AJ Allmendinger (+5500)
Gen-7 pack racing is passive—analyze the lap times, and it’s clear. Drivers spend most of the race saving fuel and nursing their cars, not racing, because the Gen-7 car restricts aggressive moves. Denny Hamlin has lamented this state of super-speedway racing, noting that drivers can’t pull out of line to make passes. Instead, moves happen on pit road. The formula? Play it safe and wait. That’s always been “The Dinger’s” approach in the Cup Series, yielding consistent top-10 finishes and, crucially, survival. But top-10s aren’t the goal—wins are. Allmendinger proved in the Xfinity Series that he’s capable of winning a super-speedway race.
Anthony Alfredo (+10000)
How far are you willing to go? Is this too much of a stretch? Why hesitate to bet on Alfredo? The kid can drive. He’s elevated average-to-inferior equipment in both the Xfinity and Cup Series. Last spring, he finished sixth at Talladega in a Beard Motorsports car. As a rookie in 2021, he secured 10th and 12th at Talladega in average Front Row equipment. If he’s in contention at the end, he can win it.
