In Spanish domestic football, no stage is bigger and no lights are brighter. When the Copa del Rey final kicks off tomorrow at 4 p.m. ET at Estadio de Cartuja in Sevilla, it will mark the first time since 2013-14 that the domestic cup finale is also an El Clásico.
In that 2014 match, the names were different. Ángel Di María, Gareth Bale, and Karim Benzema started up front for the Galacticos, with Cristiano Ronaldo sidelined with knee and thigh issues, while Jude Bellingham, Vinicius Júnior, Kylian Mbappé, and Rodrygo will form the front four tomorrow. For the Blaugrana, it was none other than Lionel Messi, Neymar, and Cesc Fàbregas, while tomorrow it will be Dani Olmo, Lamine Yamal, Raphinha, and Ferrán Torres. Robert Lewandowski, La Liga’s leading scorer, picked up a hamstring injury in Barça’s 4-3 comeback win over Celta Vigo last Saturday and will be absent.
Either way, the talent is no less notable and the teams no less famous. Barça could be as little as six games away from securing its first treble since 2014-15, as they’re also in the semifinals of the Champions League against Internazionale and hold a four-point lead in La Liga.
The Blaugrana are -165 favorites to lift the trophy at DraftKings Sportsbook, with Real Madrid at +125. Barça is +115 to win the tie in regular time, with the Galacticos at +205, while there are +265 odds that extra time and/or penalties are required to determine the title-holders.
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid prediction, pick
Barça has seemed unbeatable at times this season, as all of its major playmakers have taken a step up. Yamal has shown shades of young Messi, becoming the youngest-ever player to finish in the Top 10 in Ballon d’Or voting last season and leading La Liga in assists thus far. Speaking of football’s most prestigious individual award, Raphinha has established himself as arguably the favorite so far, ranking third in La Liga and leading the Champions League in goal contributions. And while Lewandowski’s injury robs arguably the greatest pure striker of his generation of the chance to contribute to yet another trophy, Ferrán has been nearly as clinical in front of goal, posting easily the best goals per 90 minutes figure of his career.
This season, Barcelona has scored 23 more goals than any other squad in La Liga, six more in the Champions League, and one more in the Copa del Rey. They’ve also allowed just 32 goals in La Liga, the fifth-fewest of any team, despite starting one of the youngest back lines in football and having to coax Wojciech Szczęsny out of retirement when first-choice goalkeeper Marc-André ter Stegen suffered a torn patellar tendon in September. The Blaugrana didn’t make particularly easy work of the Copa del Rey semifinal against Atlético Madrid, requiring a 27th-minute Ferrán winner to hold on in a 1-0 second leg, but they absolutely deserve to be the favorite.
Real Madrid has been somewhat disappointing this season relative to the immense talent on its roster. Vinicius, one year after controversially finishing second in Ballon d’Or voting, has regressed from 0.97 goal contributions per 90 minutes in La Liga last season to 0.71 so far this season. Summer acquisition Mbappé has been as excellent as advertised, ranking second in the competition in goal contributions, but even he hasn’t been immune from his fair share of controversies and issues, from an inexcusable straight red card on April 13 against Alavés to an ankle injury that put his status for tomorrow’s match in question. Rodrygo hasn’t netted in any Spanish competition since January 19, and the Galacticos have been worse in both attack and defense than they were last season. Real Madrid was unceremoniously dumped from the Champions League, 5-1 on aggregate, by Arsenal.
Hansi Flick is obviously taking this match seriously, even with La Liga still hanging in the balance, as he sat several of his best players — including defenders Jules Koundé and Pau Cubarsí — in Barça’s most recent match in order to better deal with Madrid’s attack. Meanwhile, Los Blancos’ central defensive midfielder, Eduardo Camavinga, suffered a torn tendon in his groin and is done for the season, a debilitating blow both for the young Frenchman and the team. Real Madrid is at real risk of finishing trophy-less in the three major competitions for the first time since 2020-21, and Carlo Ancelotti may be coaching his last game for the squad before leaving for the Brazil national team.
In a tactic perhaps intended to fire up his squad, Ancelotti admitted in the build-up to the game that the Blaugrana are favored, and they should be — they’ve won 5-2 and 4-0 when these teams previously matched up. In its epic comeback against Celta Vigo, Barça looked inevitable.
But inevitable teams don’t always win; last season, Bayer Leverkusen looked set to complete an invincible treble, until it didn’t.
My head tells me Barcelona, and I’ll be rooting for them, but my heart tells me never to doubt Madrid.
