Last season, the Braves and Diamondbacks were down to the wire in the Wild Card race, and they could end up in a similar spot this season. The D-Backs have gotten off to a better start, but both teams have had uneven beginnings to the season.
The Braves are trying to claw their way back to .500, but they’ll need to find some success on the road and get reigning Cy Young winner Chris Sale on track if they want to bounce back from their dismal start.
Atlanta did just win five of six on their homestand against the Twins as they now head back on the road to Arizona, where the D-Backs just dropped two of three games to the Rays and are now 7-6 at home this season.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Braves are -130 favorites on the Moneyline in the first game of this series for Friday. Let’s dig into this matchup and break down everything you need to know.
Braves vs. Diamondbacks prediction, preview
Two pitchers with strong track records but shaky starts will go head-to-head in this matchup as Chris Sale faces Zac Gallen. Sale won the NL Cy Young just last season but has a 6.17 ERA in his 0-2 start to 2025.
While he has had an issue with control, issuing seven walks in his five starts, the rest of his underlying stats aren’t nearly as bad. He has a 12.3 K/9 rate, which would actually be higher than last year’s mark, and his 3.28 xFIP shows that he’s not giving up lots of load contact. Opposing hitters have a 36.8% hard-hit rate, but also an unsustainably high .422 BABIP. He should be lined up for positive regression at some point. The D-Backs are a fairly neutral matchup against lefties, although most of their power comes from left-handed hitters, who Sale typically holds in check.
On the other side of the matchup, Gallen has also stumbled early in the season, giving up 17 earned runs and five home runs in his first five starts, going 1-3 with a 5.20 ERA and 4.42 xFIP. Walks have been even more of a concern for Gallen, who has issued 13 free passes in 27 1/3 innings.
The Braves’ offense still ranks near the bottom of the league in many categories but has shown signs of bouncing back with a .278 batting average, .358 wOBA and 10 home runs in their last six games. All those games were at home, though, and on the road, Atlanta is just 2-11 with a .189 team batting average and only 2.8 runs per game.
Braves vs. Diamondbacks pick, best bet
Even though both pitchers are struggling in ERA and giving up runs, they have been able to stack up strikeouts. Sale is averaging 6.4 strikeouts per start, while Gallen is averaging 5.8 strikeouts. The total strikeouts prop in this matchup is 16.5, and with both Aces looking to find their way, I could easily see this going over. The Braves’ offense has the fifth-highest K% in the MLB, averaging 9.0 strikeouts per game. The Diamondbacks have been better about avoiding strikeouts, but Sale is a very tough matchup for all their lefties.
Best Bet: Over 16.5 total strikeouts (-130)
These two struggling veteran starters may give up some runs, but they’ll also produce plenty of punchouts in what should be a fun playoff-style atmosphere in Arizona.
Strong Lean: Diamondbacks (+110)
Just because the Braves swept the struggling Twins and beat the Cardinals in two of three doesn’t mean I’m ready to trust them on the road. The D-Backs’ last two losses were both in extra innings, and they should be able to find a way to bounce back against the still-recovering Braves.
