All eyes are on Milwaukee tonight for a pivotal matchup between Eastern Conference rivals. The Pacers took Games 1 and 2 in this first round series. Now, the Bucks will hope to earn their first win in this best-of-seven set.
When these two squads last met on Tuesday, the Pacers eked out a 123-115 win. The loss was deflating for the Bucks, who welcomed back guard Damian Lillard (blood clot) for the first time in over a month.
Milwaukee enters Friday’s contest as five-point favorites, with the over/under set at 230 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Let’s break down which team has the edge going into this crucial Game 3.
Pacers vs. Bucks preview, prediction
It’s no secret that the Bucks are a flawed group. Depth issues, confusing coaching, and inconsistent defense are a few of the problems that have plagued Milwaukee all season. Still, Giannis Antetokounmpo remains one of the five best players on Earth. The Greek Freak has been phenomenal, averaging 35.0 points, 15.0 rebounds, and 4.0 assists through two games this series.
Unfortunately for Giannis, his teammates have failed to step up. Midseason acquisition Kyle Kuzma dropped the ultra-rare 0-0-0 stat line in Game 1 (shoutout Tony Snell). Veterans such as Brook Lopez and Taurean Prince have been ineffective. Lillard, in his first game back, only put up 14 points in 37 minutes. Bobby Portis is the only Bucks player other than Antetokounmpo to score 20 points in this series.
Much of the credit for Milwaukee’s struggles need to go towards their opponent. Unlike last year, the Pacers are capable of getting some stops. This season, Indiana recorded the NBA’s 13th-best defensive rating (114.3). An offense equipped with All-Stars Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam doesn’t need much help to begin with.
The Bucks have two of the three best players in this series. However, the Pacers have a decisive edge when it comes to overall depth. Haliburton has lived up to his reputation as one of the NBA’s preeminent passers, dishing out 12 assists in Games 1 and 2. Siakam has been as reliable as they come, dropping 24 and 25 points, respectively. Indiana has also gotten good minutes out of role players such as Aaron Nesmith, Andrew Nembhard, and Benedict Mathurin.
Pacers vs. Bucks pick, best bet
It’s nearly impossible to feel confident about Milwaukee’s chances heading into Friday. The Bucks have looked older, slower, and more undisciplined compared to the Pacers. Still, the ultimate equalizer in any playoff series is having the best player on the court. That hasn’t meant much this week, but a return to Milwaukee should elevate the play of several role players.
We’ve seen the Bucks thrive in this matchup before, albeit with significantly lower stakes. It doesn’t mean much, but Milwaukee did win three of four regular season meetings with Indiana. Another factor is the play of Lillard, who shook off some rust on Tuesday. The future Hall of Famer should look more like himself tonight, even if he’s not at 100%. I’m still expecting Indiana to win this series, but the Bucks are too talented to get swept.
