The Boston Celtics did it — they took a 2-0 lead over the seventh-seeded Orlando Magic in the first round of their 2025 playoff run with a 109-100 victory on Wednesday night. It wasn’t particularly convincing; Jaylen Brown needed virtually all of his 36 points, the third-best outing of his playoff career, in order to lead his team to victory. But it was a victory nonetheless.
Now, the scrappy, ugly battle between two of the league’s slowest offenses and stingiest defenses will shift to Central Florida, where Brown will once again have to take center stage. His co-star, Jayson Tatum, is technically only doubtful with the bone bruise that he suffered in Game 1, but given Joe Mazzulla’s characterization of his injury as “severe”, he won’t play. Brown, too, is questionable with the knee issue that held him out for the last three games of the regular season, and Jrue Holiday is iffy with a hamstring strain.
Boston is a 3.5-point favorite (-175 Moneyline) at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the point total set for 196.5. Meanwhile, Orlando is +145 on the Moneyline.
Celtics at Magic preview, prediction
Despite the fact that both teams are extremely stingy on defense — during the regular season, the Magic had the league’s second-best defense, while the Celtics were fourth — and play at the league’s two slowest paces, these teams operate very different styles. Boston bombs away from deep and hits at a high percentage, firing nearly six more triples per game than any other team during the regular season and still making the 10th-highest percentage, while Orlando attempted the eighth-fewest and converted at just a 31.8% rate, the worst of any team since the 2015-16 Los Angeles Lakers.
That discrepancy has normalized somewhat during the first two games of the series; the Celtics have attempted just the fifth-most threes and converted at just the eighth-best percentage, while the Magic have still attempted the fewest triples and converted them at an even lower rate than their regular-season accuracy. That’s partly a question of scheme — Orlando allowed by far the fewest three-point attempts in the regular season, although opponents hit them at the eighth-highest rate.
Boston played at the Kia Center twice during the regular season and lost both games, but it’s hard to glean anything from those games. In the first one, the Magic pulled off an upset despite Brown’s 35 points in Tatum’s absence, but neither Paolo Banchero nor Franz Wagner played and Jalen Suggs did. And in the second, every single one of the Celtics’ starters rested and their reserves shot just 17.5% from deep in a 96-76 loss, the third-lowest single-game point total by any team this season.
Celtics at Magic pick, best bet
Mazzulla, Brad Stevens, and the rest of Boston’s staff have a lot of incentives to juggle today. With three starters on the injury report, a 2-0 lead over a team that has looked hapless in half-court offense, and the expectation of making the NBA Finals, the Celtics might be pressed to play things cautiously. On the other hand, Boston could try sweep Orlando and end the series on Sunday night, which would likely give it at least five days of rest before its next series begins, given how tightly-matched the Detroit Pistons and New York Knicks have appeared through three games of their series.
I’m not sure Mazzulla, one of the most hard-nosed coaches in the NBA, has any respect for the Magic, so I’d bet that in addition to Tatum’s absence, at least one of Brown and Holiday sit. Brown and Holiday have both been in and out of the lineup all season with various ailments, with both players falling short of the 65-game threshold required to be considered for All-NBA teams, and given that Brown has had to receive pain-killing injections just to suit up, I’d say he’s more likely to rest. If both Brown and Tatum sit, either Sixth Man of the Year Payton Pritchard or shooting specialist Sam Hauser would likely enter the starting lineup, and both players have had some success this season in bigger roles.
Either way, even if he plays, I don’t think Brown is a reliable option to go for 36 points again. He’s been relatively inconsistent this season, posting a sub-50% true shooting percentage in 19 of his 63 regular-season contests, and while he’s a combined 10-for-12 in two games against Banchero and Wagner in the first two games of the series, that’s destined to normalize at some point. His percentages at the rim, from floater range, and on above-the-break threes have all been better than his season averages despite 63.6% of his shots coming with a defender within four feet of him, an increase from 52.5% during the regular season.
For Orlando, Banchero has been a star, averaging 34.0 points per game — the third-most of any player in the postseason so far — but that’s as much a function of his usage rate, which is the second-highest among any player in the postseason, as it is his efficiency. The Magic shot just seven-for-29 from beyond the arc in Game 2, and despite their historic deep shooting woes, that’s bound to improve in Game 3. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope shot 44.0% from deep after the All-Star break and is just two-for-10 so far this series. Wagner’s deep accuracy was also bad during the regular season, but not two-for-13 bad.
With some three-point shooting improvement, Orlando sneaks an upset tonight, Brown or no Brown, before bowing out in a gentleman’s sweep.
