Game 3 for this Thunder vs. Grizzlies series will take place in Memphis on Thursday. Heading into this contest, Oklahoma City holds a 2-0 series lead. On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Thunder are favored by 9.5 points and this game carries a total of 228 points.
Below, I dive into three of my favorite player prop bets for Thursday’s Game 3 between the Thunder and the Grizzlies on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Best Thunder vs. Grizzlies Player Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 32.5 Points (-125)
Gilgeous-Alexander has scored 15 and 27 points in the first two games of this series, which is a product of two things. First, the referees have a tendency to call fewer fouls in the playoffs. Gilgeous-Alexander is only averaging 5.5 free throws per game so far in this series, which is well below his 8.8 average in the regular season. Plus, the Thunder being at full strength is a big factor.
Oklahoma City has played 18 games this season with Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstien active. Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 30.1 PPG in those contests, which is a notable drop from his 32.4 PPG average for the season. Furthermore, in those 18 games with the Thunder’s top four players available, Gilgeous-Alexander’s usage has been 1.4 percentage points lower than his average. Scoring over 32.5 points is simply too much for Gilgeous-Alexander in this situation.
Zach Edey Under 7.5 Points (+100)
Edey has only scored four points in each of the first two games of this series, and there is no reason to expect an improvement for the rookie. As a slow big man who can’t stretch the floor, Edey has seen little work in this series against the fast paced Thunder. He’s averaging only 23 minutes per game with a 9.9% usage rate, which ranks second-to-last for Memphis. The Thunder are boasting an incredible 136.7 offensive rating with Edey on the floor this series. The rookie’s role is likely to be very small in Game 3.
The Grizzlies have been far more effective with Santi Aldama on the floor instead of Edey, and the center playing less than 20 minutes in Game 3 wouldn’t be surprising. On top of the major concerns about his role, the Thunder are the top rated defense in the league and they are giving up the fifth-fewest points to centers this season. Edey shouldn provide little offense and is a must-bet for under 7.5 points at this +100 price.
Santi Aldama Over 10.5 Points (-110)
As noted above, Edey is almost unplayable for the Grizzlies in this matchup. With the rookie’s role diminishing, Aldama should be the primary beneficiary. The veteran logged 30 minutes off the bench in Game 2 and closed the contest with Memphis’ starters. He finished with 10 points and an 18% usage rate.
The forward should see 30+ minutes in Game 3, giving Aldama a strong chance to exceed 10.5 points, even with the Thunder’s league-best defense on the other side. Aldama is averaging 16 PPG in the 17 games he cracked 30 minutes this season.
