After five days of basketball action, all teams have played exactly two games in their first-round series, and the action shifts now to the home venue of the lower seeds. Two of the three series with games today are tied, while the Oklahoma City Thunder have a 2-0 lead over the Memphis Grizzlies.
Usually, I’d offer five bets as part of this column, but since there are only three games, I’ll offer one from each game. Here are my best bets for tonight’s action at DraftKings Sportsbook.
First, let’s take a look at the full slate:
New York Knicks at Detroit Pistons, 7 p.m. ET
Oklahoma City Thunder at Memphis Grizzlies, 9:30 p.m. ET
Denver Nuggets at LA Clippers, 10 p.m. ET
Detroit Pistons Moneyline (-102)
Of the three games tonight, this one will probably be the closest. Detroit looked well on its way to taking a surprising 1-0 series lead after three quarters of Game 1, until New York went on a 21-0 run to close it out. But the Pistons bounced back in Game 2 on Monday night with their first playoff victory in 17 years, holding the Knicks to just 28.6% accuracy from beyond the arc and edging them out, 100-94. Detroit carries all the momentum back to Little Caesars Arena, where it went 22-19 during the regular season and split the series with New York.
Sure, there’s reason to believe that the Knicks are due for a bounce-back, and I still think they’ll split the two games in Michigan and eventually go on to win the series. OG Anunoby and Karl-Anthony Towns scored just 10 points each in Game 2, well below their season averages, and KAT barely even touched the ball in the second half, something that New York will surely emphasize in pregame preparations. However, by the same token, Ausar Thompson, Tim Hardaway Jr., and Malik Beasley combined to shoot just four-for-24 from the field and one-for-14 from beyond the arc, and that’s certainly going to be better in Game 2. In a toss-up game, give me the home side playing in front of a buzzing crowd.
Chet Holmgren 18+ Points (+120)
If Oklahoma City wants to make quick work of Memphis and give itself some rest before facing the winner of these playoffs’ most intense series — the West 4-5 matchup between the Nuggets and Clippers — Holmgren will need to be the X-factor. He was more prepared than most of the Thunder’s role players in last season’s playoff disappointment, averaging 15.6 points, 7.2 boards, and 2.5 blocks per game, even if he shot it inefficiently from deep. And he’s been a valuable piece in this series so far, averaging 19.5 points, 10.5 boards, and 3.5 blocks per game, making six of his 12 three-pointers and 11 of his 12 free-throw attempts. He’s played mostly solid defense against Jaren Jackson Jr., even though Jackson has largely stymied him on the other end.
Down 2-0 and facing speedy elimination, the Grizzlies need to make some sort of adjustment. It might not be fair to the rookie, but Zach Edey was a -13 in Game 2 — the third-worst of any of the starters — and the two who performed worse are vital for other reasons. Scotty Pippen Jr. is needed for his defense on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander — who he’s held to 16 points on five-for-13 shooting in 11 minutes — and Jackson’s importance doesn’t need to be stated. If Tuomas Iisalo makes any adjustment, it’s going to be cutting Edey’s minutes down and playing Jackson more at center, thus moving him away from Holmgren, who has been rather effective against every other Memphis defender.
Denver Nuggets +5.5 (-110)
Denver-LA has been an unbelievable series so far, with the first game going to overtime and Kawhi Leonard producing a vintage performance in Game 2 to lead his team to a 105-102 victory. Both games this series have been within five points, and even with the action shifting to the Intuit Dome — where LA posted a 30-11 record and the league’s third-best home net rating — I’m expecting another nail-biter. Just as the Clippers lost Game 1 because Leonard coughed up a season-high seven turnovers, the Nuggets have the margin for error to play with after Game 2, as there’s no way Nikola Jokić will commit seven turnovers again. Christian Braun is also due to show up on offense eventually.
I’m expecting LA to win because the Intuit Dome neutralizes one of Denver’s biggest advantages — it drew the ninth-most personal fouls per game during the regular season, but opponents shot just 74.8% from the free-throw line at the venue, the second-lowest accuracy in the league. Still, Jokić shot just six-for-10 from the charity stripe in Game 2, and even shooting into The Wall, his 80.0% mark for the season means that he’s likely to improve on that figure tonight, which is at least two more points the Nuggets can reasonably expect. Leonard’s also unlikely to shoot 15-for-19 from the field again, even as incredible as he is.
