We are an immediate satisfaction society. Heck, it’s why MLB instituted the pitch clock and attempted to make games end faster. However, even with the average game time waaaaay down, if you’re looking for the quickest action on the board for baseball, it’s a NRFI (no run first inning) prop bet.
Here are my favorite spots for a NRFI bet on Thursday’s night’s tiny four-game slate.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Angeles (-110)
I don’t have anything overly profound to say here, this simply happens to be a matchup between two of the worst lineups in all of baseball. Entering play on Thursday, the Pirates sit 27th in MLB in wRC+ (78) and dead-last in the National League in ISO (.113). Yes, Oneil Cruz is heating up — and he hit one of the longest home runs I’ve ever seen on Wednesday — but he’ll be in a left-on-left matchup versus Tyler Anderson. This just isn’t an offense that I would consider dangerous. Neither are the Angels. While Mike Trout will hit in the first inning of tonight’s contest, that’s about all you have to worry about with this prop. After getting shutout by Pittsburgh last night, Los Angeles sits 27th in the league in batting average (.216) and 26th in wRC+ (89).
Here’s a quick work on Carmen Mlodzinski, too. Though the RHP’s 7.41 ERA is gross, the underlying numbers paint a much more acceptable picture of the 26-year-old. Mlodzinski’s been BABIP’d to death so far in 2025 (.424), despite the fact that he’s only conceding a 3.3% opponent barrel rate. Heck, Mlodzinski owns a 3.56 FIP. He should be able to right the ship and take advantage of this prime matchup.
Tampa Bay Rays at Arizona Diamondbacks (-135)
Drew Rasmussen lost most of 2023 and 2024 to three elbow surgeries, but the right-hander looks really healthy to begin 2025. Across four starts and 20.2 innings, Rasmussen has only allowed two earned runs this season, maintaining a pristine 0.87 ERA and a 1.62 FIP. The 29-year-old won’t be able to pitch to an 88.2% strand rate forever, yet Rasmussen’s velocity looks to be back where to used to be and a 28.9% strikeout rate is very promising. The presence of Corbin Carroll is scary, as the former Rookie of the Year currently leads the majors in home runs, but the top of Arizona’s lineup is a little underwhelming with Ketel Marte on the IL. I think Rasmussen should be fine.
On the other side of this pitching matchup is Corbin Burnes. The 30-year-old possesses a 2.92 ERA dating back to the beginning of 2020, a span of time were Burnes’ 21.5 fWAR ranks second among starting pitchers to only Zack Wheeler. Burnes’ tenure in Arizona has not started the best, as the veteran’s strikeout rate continues to fall, but I’m willing to trust his track record, especially following his best outing of 2025 his last time out, limiting the explosive Cubs to two runs over six innings.
The other thing to consider with this prop is location. The Rays’ bats have gone bananas when getting the opportunity to hit at George M. Steinbrenner Field this season, with the team posting a 125 wRC+ within the split. On the road, in actual MLB ball parks, Tampa Bay’s wRC+ falls to 86. That seems relevant!
