The Thunder and Grizzlies’ first-round series continues Thursday with Game 3 in Memphis. Oklahoma City currently holds a 2-0 lead in this best of seven. On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Thunder are a 9.5-point favorite for Game 3 and this contest carries a total of 228 points.
Below, I break down Game 3 between the Thunder and Grizzlies and give a pick for the game via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Thunder vs. Grizzlies preview, prediction
The Thunder once again dominated the Grizzlies in Game 2, with Oklahoma City winning by 19 points. The Thunder are now a perfect 6-0 against Memphis this season with an absurd 24.2-point average margin of victory and all of these games have been decided by at least 13 points.
In Game 2, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored 27 points, but he had an off shooting night, finishing 10-of-29 from the field. The Grizzlies giving Gilgeous-Alexander problems was a plus for the club, but Jalen Williams stepped up with his teammate having a poor shooting night, finishing with 24 points while shooting 10-of-19 from the floor. Chet Holmgren also scored 20 points and Alex Caruso added 13 points off the bench. The Thunder simply have too many weapons for the Grizzlies to contain and it’s hard to imagine this struggling Memphis defense improving enough to slow down this incredible Oklahoma City offense. Since firing Taylor Jenkins a few weeks ago, the Grizzlies are allowing 118.1 PPG under interim head coach Tuomas Iisalo.
After getting embarrassed by 51 points in Game 1, the Grizzlies did get some bounce-back performances from their best players in Game 2, with Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Desmond Bane all scoring at least 19 points. Scotty Pippen Jr. also chipped with 13 points, but after that, not one Memphis player scored more than four points. Zach Edey was one of those players and he was also underwhelming on the glass with only seven rebounds. Overall, the rookie has been a non-factor against Oklahoma City’s league-best defense, averaging only 5.4 points and 6.2 rebounds per game in five matchups this season.
Edey being a slow, old-school center who doesn’t have an outside shot and only operates in the paint makes him almost unplayable against this fast-paced Thunder team. Oklahoma City’s offensive rating has been at a ridiculous 136.7 with Edey on the floor in this series and the rookie playing a small role for the rest of this series is very likely. With Edey struggling, the Grizzlies have opted for more small ball lineups. Primarily, Memphis has been using a lineup that features Santi Aldama with the rest of their starters. With the veteran at power forward for this lineup, Jackson Jr. operates as the Grizzlies’ center. With a positive net rating, this lineup has been far more effective than their starting five in this series and, as a result, Aldama should once again see big minutes in Game 3. In Game 2, the veteran logged 30 minutes and finished with 10 points and five rebounds. Aldama somehow having a big performance as a scorer would be a huge boost for the Grizzlies and is one of their only hopes of making Game 3 competitive. Unfortunately, with the Thunder’s league-best defense on the other side, this isn’t a likely outcome for Memphis.
Thunder vs. Grizzlies pick, best bet
This Thunder vs. Grizzlies matchup is the most lopsided series in the playoffs and Oklahoma City’s dominance over Memphis should continue in Game 3. The Grizzlies are 2-4 at home under Iisalo and the Thunder are 32-8 on the road this season. Oklahoma City was just a 14.5-point favorite for Game 2, but as the road team for Game 3, they are a 9.5-point favorite. Memphis having homecourt for this contest doesn’t justify a five-point swing and backing the Thunder to cover this 9.5-point line is a no-brainer.
This season, Oklahoma City is 25-12-2 ATS on the road and 46-20-3 after a win, both of which are league-best records. On DraftKings Sportsbook, 91% of the handle and 81% bets spread wise are on the Thunder -9.5, so attacking this line quickly is sharp, as this number is likely to move to -10 or even -10.5 before tipoff.
