The NBA playoffs are off to a pretty hot start, as four of the eight series are tied after two games. Neither of the 1-8 matchups has been particularly competitive — although the Miami Heat gave the Cleveland Cavaliers a bit of a scare last night — but that’s somewhat to be expected. The fact that the most enthralling series so far has been the 4-5 matchup in the West also isn’t too surprising, given that the Denver Nuggets and LA Clippers were separated only by a tiebreaker.
So far, the scores in the series after two games at a mile high: LA 215, Denver 214. Game 1 went to overtime, and Game 2 was decided only on a pair of missed triples with less than 10 seconds on the clock. It’s anyone’s guess who will win tonight as the playoffs come to the brand-new Intuit Dome for the first time for a 10 p.m. ET tipoff.
The Clippers are 5.5-point favorites (-225 Moneyline) at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the point total set for 212.5. Meanwhile, the Nuggets are +185 on the Moneyline.
Nuggets at Clippers preview, prediction
I couldn’t have been more excited for this series before it began, and it has lived up to all the expectations. In a way, despite having never won a championship, LA represents the old guard — its two best scorers are 35-year-old James Harden and 33-year-old Kawhi Leonard, respectively — while Denver, which did win a title two seasons ago, bears the burden of the new era behind the singular brilliance of 30-year-old three-time MVP Nikola Jokić. The old guard has shown flashes of greatness: in Game 1, Harden led the way with 32 points and 11 assists, while Leonard’s ultra-efficient 39-point masterpiece in Game 2 evoked memories of his 2019 championship run with the Toronto Raptors. Meanwhile, the new era hasn’t exactly disappointed, but 27.0 points, 10.0 rebounds, and 11.0 assists on 50-42-63 shooting splits is mediocre by Jokić’s standards.
The X-factor is the Intuit Dome, the Clippers’ high-tech $2 billion home in Inglewood, California, that has unique features such as The Wall, a fan-only section of abnormally steep seating stretching behind one basket where fans are heavily encouraged, if not outright mandated, to yell and to distract opposing players. In its first season, the strategy has worked: opponents are shooting just 74.8% from the charity stripe at the arena, the second-worst accuracy in the league, and that mark is significantly lower when they’re shooting into The Wall. Intuit Dome will certainly be rocking on Thursday night for what will be the first-ever playoff game at the arena.
These teams played only once at Intuit Dome during the regular season, which LA won, 126-122, but it came before Leonard returned from the knee surgery that ended his 2023-24 season prematurely. In that game, Aaron Gordon — who will be a starter tonight for the Nuggets — came off the bench. Terance Mann also scored 15 points off the bench in that game for the Clippers, and he now plays for the Atlanta Hawks. That first contest at Intuit Dome will reveal almost nothing about how tonight is going to go.
Nuggets at Clippers pick, best bet
The first order of business for LA is to slow down Jokić, although stopping him entirely is an impossible task. Given that he’s the only player on the Clippers’ roster who’s big enough to effectively combat the six-foot-11, 284-pound beast, center Ivica Zubac — who should get a few Defensive Player of the Year votes — has been arguably the most important player in the series. The Croatian has been up to the task so far, holding Jokić to a mediocre (by his standards) 29 points, 15 assists, and six turnovers on 10-for-21 shooting (four-for-eight from deep) in the more than 20 minutes that he guarded him across the first two games. He’s also been very solid offensively, dropping 18.5 points, 12.5 boards, and 3.0 assists on 64.0% shooting so far, although most of his damage has come against players other than Jokić.
Zubac’s performance over the first two games should be relatively sustainable for the rest of the series, given that he averaged similar numbers — 19.6 points and 12.6 rebounds per game on 65.5% shooting — after the All-Star break. And while Leonard likely won’t shoot 15-for-19 every game, he’s known as a playoff riser who was indispensable in Toronto’s 2019 title run, and an efficient 25 points, six rebounds, and four assists should be the expectation every single game. LA’s win in Game 2 was extremely encouraging because it received just 14 total points from its bench — 17.6 fewer points than its regular-season average — and still came out on top.
Entering Game 2, Denver really needed more from Michael Porter Jr. after he provided just three points in one-for-four shooting in Game 1 while being shuttered by Leonard. He found a way to switch off The Klaw on Monday, dropping 15 points, adding a playoff career-high 15 rebounds, and not committing any fouls. After being benched for Russell Westbrook in crunch time in Game 1, it was Porter out there for most of the last five minutes until David Adelman finally turned to Westbrook with one minute, 16 seconds remaining and the Nuggets holding a two-point lead.
Now it’s Christian Braun’s turn to show up; the third-year guard has totaled just 16 points in the first two contests after averaging more than 15 points per game during the regular season. Norman Powell — who’s far from an elite defender — has done an excellent job of denying Braun clean shots so far, and Harden, too, has been defensively stout.
This game should still be close because Jokić is highly unlikely to turn the ball over seven times again, something he’s done just seven times in 82 career playoff games. He also won’t shoot 60% from the free-throw line, even against The Wall, given that he went 80.0% from the charity stripe during the regular season. Then again, Westbrook — a career 30.5% three-point shooter who only hit 34.2% of his wide-open threes during the regular season — has hit five of his 12 triples so far this series, including a timely bomb in Game 1 to give Denver a two-point lead late. That might just be the single most unsustainable trend in the series.
