Coming into 2025, the consensus around baseball was that while the American League didn’t feature many awful teams, it also didn’t seem to have many great ones, either. Well, the physical manifestation of that idea is taking the field tonight in Houston, as the very-average Astros square-off with the exceedingly-average Blue Jays.
Houston has taken the first two contests of this series, climbing a single game above .500 and just two games back of the Rangers for the lead in the AL West. Meanwhile, the Jays have dropped four in a row coming into Wednesday and have fallen all the way back to .500 on the season.
Can Toronto avoid getting swept? Or will the Astros bring out the brooms? Let’s break it down.
Blue Jays vs. Astros prediction, preview
So, here’s the thing about the Blue Jays: They just can’t seem to score. Overall, the team doesn’t appear to be one of the league’s worst offenses, as it sits 11th in batting average (.245) and 18th in wRC+ (98), but Toronto’s absolute lack of power has been its downfall. The Jays rank 29th in home runs (13) and 29th in ISO (.105), which means that the squad needs to rely on sequencing luck and stringing multiple hits together to score runs. Needless to say, they have not been doing that lately. Toronto’s 87 runs are 25th in MLB and its .275 wOBA with runners in scoring position is the fourth-worst mark in MLB, bettering only the Mariners, White Sox and Twins. No pop and no clutch is a seriously bad combo.
Still, there might be some hope on the horizon — aside from the fact that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette are both massively underperforming their expected wOBA for the season. On Wednesday, the Astros will send rookie Ryan Gusto to the mound for his third-career MLB start. The first two didn’t exactly go super well, as Gusto has allowed five runs and 13 hits in his last nine innings of work. For 2025 as a whole, Gusto’s biggest flaw has been his inability to pitch to left-handed opponents. To wit, Gusto’s surrendered a .348 average and a .442 wOBA to LHBs. That could mean good things for Anthony Santander, Andres Gimenez, Alan Roden and Addison Barger.
It’s worth noting that Houston’s offense hasn’t gotten off to all that (trash can) bangin’ of a start, either — sorry. Through 23 games, the Astros are slashing just .230/.307/.341 with a 91 wRC+ and a .112 ISO. No one is hitting all that well and the likes of Yordan Alvarez, Christian Walker and Yainer Diaz have struggled.
Knowing all that, you can understand why Bowden Francis might be a pleasant sight for Houston’s hitters. Francis is due for some serious regression, as the right-hander’s 6.50 xERA is more than double his 3.13 actual ERA through four starts. Francis proved to be a bit of a BABIP king towards the end of 2024, yet a .196 mark is unsustainable, especially when paired with a fourth percentile opponent hard hit rate (54.1%) and a ninth percentile opponent barrel rate (14.8%). I guess home runs don’t count against BABIP, which is why Francis has already given up five in only 23.0 innings in 2025. Yikes.
Blue Jays vs. Astros pick, best bet
If I was 85-years-old, I’d say that both of these teams coming into Wednesday night due for a run-scoring outburst. However, I’m 33, so I’m simply going to say that these are two struggling lineups that should find some success against underwhelming starting pitching. Do with that what you will.
Best Bet: Astros Over 3.5 Runs (-140)
Francis is usually good for at least one home run per start, maybe tonight it’ll be more than one.
Strong Lean: Anthony Santander 2+ Total Bases (+100)
It’s been a rough start for Santander, but five of his last eight hits have gone for extra-bases.
