The Rockets got off to a solid start in Game 1, leading after the first quarter, but the Warriors dominated the rest of the half and maintained that comfortable margin to take a 1-0 series lead. Similar to my play on the Lakers in the first quarter on Tuesday night, this should be a good spot for the home team to make some adjustments and come out strong to avoid a 0-2 deficit in the series, as the scene shifts to San Francisco for a Game 3.
It’s also helpful that the betting trends point to Houston being a good play early in games, while Golden State has been a first quarter fade. After winning the first quarter in Game 1, the Rockets improved to 48-34-1 1Q ATS on the season. Meanwhile, the Warriors dropped to 35-45-4 1Q ATS. Game 1 of the series was a physical and low scoring game, which you would think plays to Houston’s strengths.
If we see the same kind of game on Wednesday, I’d expect Houston to improve upon its dreadful shooting performance from Sunday night. The Rockets shot an abysmal 39% from the field, 21% from downtown and just 55% at the free throw line. While we have to credit the Warriors on defense, much of this was self inflicted by simply missing open shots. I’m expecting them to be sharper early in this game and cover the first quarter spread, likely going on to even the series at a game a piece.
Best Bet: Rockets 1Q -1.5 (-110) 1-unit
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