The Cleveland Cavaliers exceeded all expectations this year, going 64-18 in the regular season and earning the top seed in the Eastern Conference. But the work is not done yet, and they have plenty to prove in the postseason with the Miami Heat striking a bit more fear than the typical eighth seed.
The Cavaliers produced a commanding 121-100 victory in the series’ opening game, although it took until the fourth quarter to fully break the game open. These teams will square off for Game 2 tonight, with this matchup also taking place in Cleveland. The Cavaliers enter as 12-point favorites and -625 on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Heat hold +455 odds of getting the win, and the game total is set at 212 points.
As the Heat look to even things up and the Cavaliers attempt to assert their dominance once again, here are my favorite player prop bets for the Game 2 matchup.
Davion Mitchell Over 11.5 Points (-120)
While the other D. Mitchell will make more headlines in this game, Davion Mitchell has emerged as a significant part of this Miami Heat team in the home stretch of the season. After being rerouted to Miami as a part of the Jimmy Butler trade, the 26-year-old has gradually earned a larger role in Miami across the second half of the season. His high-level defense opened the door for minutes on the floor, and Mitchell has shown some capable offensive skills in his expanded role.
Across the 30 regular-season games with the Heat, he averaged 10.3 points, 5.3 assists and 2.7 rebounds per game. Mitchell finished the regular season strong, scoring over 11.5 points in 10 of his final 14 games. He scored 15 and 16 points in the pair of Play-In Tournament matchups and scored 18 points across his 34 minutes of play in the opening game of the series.
Expect his workload to remain high in Game 2, with his skillset being required to slow down the Cavaliers’ All-Star backcourt. He benefits from being much lower on the Cavaliers’ list of defensive priorities compared to players like Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo, with Mitchell’s abilities as a ball-handler necessary for the team’s success. The Baylor product is not afraid of the moment so look for him to continue delivering for this Heat team by scoring over 11.5 points for the fourth straight postseason game.
Bam Adebayo Under 9.5 Rebounds (+100)
There is a lot to like about Bam Adebayo as a basketball player, but his rebounding outlook is concerning in this series against the impressive Cavaliers frontcourt. Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen continue to hold things down for Cleveland, combining for 19.0 rebounds per game between the two of them, with both guys having a size and wingspan advantage over Adebayo. Miami has embraced a similar style, with Kel’el Ware proving to be a key part of its team this season across the second half of the year. The rookie has added 9.3 points and 7.4 rebounds this season. But Ware’s ability to help pull in boards does not help the outlook for Adebayo from a rebounding prop perspective.
Overall, Adebayo averaged 9.6 rebounds per game across the regular season. He was held to under 9.5 rebounds in 39 of the 78 games this season. This includes 13 of the final 17 games of the season. Adebayo tallied nine rebounds in the first game of the series while the Cavaliers outrebounded the Heat by five overall.
Adebayo has not averaged double-digit rebounds in the playoffs since the 2019-20 season, with his rebounding average decreasing in the postseason three of the past four years. If Miami is to have a chance in this game and in this series, it will need to create additional offensive possessions. Expect Cleveland to maintain a focus on winning the rebounding battle and for Adebayo to see significant attention whenever the ball is in the air. There is no clear way to make up for the size disadvantage here, and the track record of Adebayo is not strong enough as a rebounder for me to fully believe. Count on him being held to less than 9.5 rebounds for the second straight game in this matchup and capitalize on the +100 odds.
Ty Jerome Over 11.5 Points (-110)
After an excellent regular season in which he played like one of the best bench players in the NBA, Ty Jerome carried this into to the playoffs. The 27-year-old exploded off the bench for 28 points, five rebounds and three assists while shooting 5-for-8 from beyond the three-point arc in the Game 1 matchup. He became the only player in NBA history to score at least 28 points in less than 27 minutes in his playoff debut.
Miami increased the defensive attention sent his way as the game progressed, but don’t expect this to be to the level that limits him from still making an impact from beyond the three-point arc. Jerome is a more complete player than he sometimes gets credit for, but his scoring prop remains the reason for his being on the floor. He shot 43.9% from beyond the three-point arc throughout the regular season, which ranked fourth in the league. Jerome tallied over 11.5 points in 38 of the 70 games he played this season, including all three regular-season matchups with the Heat.
Miami ranked 17th in opponent three-point attempts allowed and 14th in opponent three-point percentage during the regular season, which is encouraging for Jerome’s outlook. With scoring threats like Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland also a factor, Jerome will not see enough defensive attention to fully neutralize him, and he has plenty of momentum to build off from his recent stretch of play. Look for him to pick up right where he left off from the opening matchup and for Cleveland to be intentional in creating three-point opportunities for the sharpshooter. Count on Jerome to score over 11.5 points just as he has in nine of the final 10 regular-season games and in the series opener.
