We’re lucky enough that we’ve only got three afternoon games on which we won’t be placing slips tonight. As for the evening slate? Heaters: Diamondbacks vs. Rays, Red Sox vs. Mariners, Cubs vs. Dodgers. The list goes on. Below are my three favorite baseball bets today based on my game predictions and previews.
Links to DraftKings Sportsbook provided for all bets below!
Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 (+166) vs Tampa Bay Rays
In the midst/on the brink of a breakout year though he may be, Taj Bradley hasn’t yet eviscerated a top-tier lineup in form. In his two starts against the Rangers and the Yankees, he has a 1.80+ WHIP. That’s eight walks and eleven hits. The strikeout numbers are there, and they remain consistent across his starts regardless of difficulty. But that doesn’t mean that this Diamondbacks lineup won’t whiff their way to a cover tonight and chase Bradley early.
Arizona’s lineup, as a collective, is no worse than seventh in the MLB in meaningful offensive statistics—batting average, on base percentage, slugging, average with runners in scoring position. You name it. They’re not pacing the league in any of the categories, but they hang right around the third-to-fifth range in most of these.
Diamondbacks have some momentum, too, after another great Pfaadt win and Pavin Smith batting performance last night. Smith’s .559 BABIP suggest major regression, but his bat-to-ball stats against right-handers have always been above-average. He’s just on a heater right now, along with the rest of the mainstays in the Snakes’ order. Having said that, Smith might take the bench tonight, what with Rays’ lefty Eduardo Rodriguez on the mound.
Still, I’ll take this Arizona lineup by over two tonight after winning by four last night. I’ve seen the E-Rod movie too much to know that he can blow up against a clicking batting order.
Jarren Duran to hit a home run (+500) vs. Seattle Mariners
I want to get in early on Duran’s imminent power surge. His expected ratios aren’t whatsoever encouraging, but all his bat-to-ball advanced metrics remain in the 70th percentile or better. He’s hitting the ball hard and squaring it up well, but he’s failing to barrel the ball with any great frequency (only 8.8%, 50th-percentile).
Emerson Hancock is no one to fear, and has already bounced around between Triple-A and the Majors this year. It’s a bit of a longshot, but Hancock’s a righty, and that favors Duran in this matchup. Duran only has one home run on the year so far. The second will come during this homestand, and it’ll be against Hancock tonight.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-110) at Chicago Cubs
What exactly is happening in Wrigley these days? Hard to account for it. In one homestand, we’ve watched these pesky Cubbies erase three-and-four-run deficits in the eighth and ninth innings, only to win in extras. Once against the red-hot Diamondbacks mentioned above, the other last night against the bloated-purse Dodgers. It’s been remarkable, and it’s hard to pinpoint just one spot in that batting lineup that stands out above the other, except for perhaps King Kyle Tucker.
Who will indeed get paid, and with every home run off a hanging breaking ball (hello, eighth inning clutch), gets closer to a $600M-guaranteed contract. It might just not get much closer tonight. I’ll be as surprised as you do if my Cubs come out tonight looking as vital and energetic as ever. I’ll be surprised if it’s the best version of the Cubs’ lineup, even though we know not yet who the Dodgers intend to roll out.
It’s a letdown spot for the Cubs, and I think even a team this fun is due for a beat.
