Repeating as NBA champions is extremely difficult, and no team has done it since the 2016-18 Golden State Warriors. In fact, each of the last six titles were won by a different team, much less consecutively, and the last defending champion to even reach the conference finals was the 2018-19 Warriors.
With that word of caution aside, the Boston Celtics have a great chance of at least matching that Golden State team’s feat and reach the NBA Finals after finishing 61-21 during the regular season, the best record by a defending champion since the 2015-16 Warriors.
But their chances have hit a snag: Jayson Tatum went down clutching his wrist after a hard fall in the fourth quarter of Game 1 against the Orlando Magic on Sunday, and while he avoided a fracture, he’ll likely miss at least tonight’s contest with a bone bruise. The Celtics did go 8-2 in the games Tatum missed, thanks in part to 2024 Finals MVP Jaylen Brown, who averaged 22.2 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 4.5 assists per game during another solid regular season.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, Boston is a 10.5-point favorite and the total is set for 196. Below, I’ve detailed my favorite prop bets centered around Brown.
Best Jaylen Brown Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Jaylen Brown O22.5 Points (-115)
If Brown wants to prove that he’s closer to a 1b than a No. 2 option — and prove that he’s worth the five-year, $285 million contract extension that was the largest in NBA history until it was surpassed by Tatum the following summer — the time is now. He wasn’t good on Sunday in Game 1 in his first game back from a concerning knee issue that held him out for the last three games of the regular season, recording 16 points, five rebounds, and two assists. But he’s had some huge performances without Tatum in the past — including a 35-point, nine-rebound, four-assist, three-steal outburst against Orlando on December 23 — and he’ll need to do so again tonight.
The circumstances under which Brown produced that game were very different than the ones he faces today: the Magic were without either of their star wings, Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, and did have their defensive ace, Jalen Suggs (who’s now out for the season). But neither Banchero nor Wagner, who guarded him in mostly equal measure during Game 1, is a particularly elite defender, so his ceiling probably looks similar to that December 23 game. Orlando did have the league’s second-best defensive rating and play at its slowest pace, so that’s working against him, but 23 isn’t a particularly high bar. It’s a number he reached in four of the seven games without Tatum in the regular season.
Jaylen Brown O4.5 Assists (-105)
Without Tatum, Al Horford will step into the starting lineup alongside Jrue Holiday, Derrick White, Brown, and Kristaps Porzingis. While the 38-year-old is excellent for his age, he’s not particularly adept at creating his own shot, with all three of his attempts in Game 1 being assisted. Brown assisted him 35 times during the regular season, the second-most of any player, a product of his propensity to drive to the basket then kick it out to Horford in the corner. 62 of his 461 field goal attempts came in the right corner — the weak side on Brown’s right-handed drive — so it wouldn’t surprise me to see Brown assist Horford on a right-corner triple.
More generally, without Tatum on the floor, Boston just doesn’t have that many players who can create their own shots, leaving those who can — like Brown — to manufacture good looks for them. Sixth Man of the Year Payton Pritchard, White, and Holiday will also see increased playmaking responsibility, but ultimately, much of the onus will fall on Brown, who should be healthier and closer to his full minutes load. He dished out five or more dimes in six of the seven games that he played without Tatum, with the loss to the Magic in December being the only exception.
