A lot of the focus entering the 2025 NFL Draft has been on Shedeur Sanders, but he remains one of the most questioned prospects in the field. He put up a monster season at Colorado, filled with highlight plays. Of course, his last name also doesn’t help keep the spotlight off him. Yes, this is a weak quarterback class, but if we remove a lot of the hype, Sanders appears to be a prospect that is free falling in this draft.
If you comb the board, you’ll find his draft position prop available anywhere from 8.5 to 21.5, obviously with adjusted juice depending on the number. At DraftKings Sportsbook, the number is set at 10.5, and I feel the juice is worth the squeeze to bet on Sanders dropping out of the top-10. Once in the discussion at No. 1 overall, and then No. 3 overall, and then No. 9 overall, the more information we gather, the less likely it seems that Sanders will even go in the top half of the first round. The majority of mock drafts now have Sanders landing at No. 21 to the Steelers.
While we’ve seen quarterbacks fly off the board in some recent drafts, including a shocking six of them taken in the top 12 picks last year, this draft has the potential to be the complete opposite. It seems set in stone we’ll hear Cam Ward’s name called first when the Titans make their pick, but after that we might be waiting a while. Think of this more like the 2022 quarterback class, when we saw Kenny Pickett as the only signal caller selected in the first round — No. 20 overall by the Steelers.
Malik Willis was supposed to be in the mix early in that draft, and I bet his draft position prop over 9.5 and 10.5 and it kept moving. Willis wasn’t selected until the third round, when the Titans took him at No. 86 overall. While I’m not projecting a slide like that, it seems more and more clear as draft night approaches that NFL teams do not see Sanders as a top-10 pick. Here’s one quote from a NFL assistant coach on Sanders:
So while the juice is heavy at -370, I think it’s worth the squeeze. Remember, betting draft markets is completely different than laying a big price tag on a football game. These markets are information based, and where things stand, this price tag seems like a bargain.
NFL Draft Best Bet: Shedeur Sanders Draft Position OVER 10.5 (-370) – risk 3.7-units to win 1-unit
