The Cleveland Cavaliers haven’t made the Eastern Conference Finals since LeBron James wore the wine and gold. But after years of toiling in mediocrity, Cleveland is back. After a 64-18 regular season that was arguably even more dominant than the record suggests, the Cavaliers should expect nothing short of a title.
For Cleveland, the time is now, and it began on Sunday night, when it took a 1-0 lead in its first-round series against the Miami Heat with a fairly convincing 121-100 victory, holding the Heat at an arm’s length before a Ty Jerome flurry in the fourth quarter put the game away. Jerome’s outburst exemplifies the Cavaliers’ high hopes: they’re deeper now than they were during the top-heavy James era.
Game 2 will tip off tonight at 7:30 p.m. ET on the shores of Lake Erie. Cleveland is a 12-point favorite (-700 Moneyline) at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the point total set to 212, and the Heat are +500 on the Moneyline. I’ll break down everything you need to know as the East’s 1-8 series heats up (pun intended).
Heat at Cavaliers preview, prediction
Shoutout to Miami for becoming the first 10th seed in NBA history to win two Play-In Tournament games on the road and make the bracket. But the records tell you all you need to know: the Heat finished 27 games worse in the regular season than the Cavaliers did. Miami was very slightly a net-positive team, while Cleveland blitzed opponents by 9.2 points per 100 possessions. The Heat had a 10-game losing streak late in the regular season, while the Cavaliers went on two separate 15-game winning streaks. Miami did take one of the three regular-season games, but that win came with Jimmy Butler still on the roster.
The point is that, during the regular season, the chasm between these two squads was massive, and Game 1 did nothing to disprove that notion. Cleveland’s star shooting guard, Donovan Mitchell, missed seven of his nine three-point attempts. Defensive Player of the Year finalist Evan Mobley recorded neither a steal nor a block for only the sixth time all season and also scored his sixth-fewest points of the season. DeAndre Hunter and Isaac Okoro combined to play 29 minutes off the bench and neither scored a point. The Heat shot nearly as efficiently as the Cavaliers did. And still Cleveland won by 21.
In a playoff setting, there are reasons to believe in Miami. Just two seasons ago, it became just the second eighth-seeded team to reach the NBA Finals, when it fell in five mostly-competitive games to the Denver Nuggets. Erik Spoelstra has 110 playoff wins, the fifth-most in league history, and he’s regularly been regarded as one of the best coaches in the league throughout his 17-year tenure. For the season, the Cavaliers’ defense was slightly better than the Heat’s, but since January 1, Miami’s has been superior. And you know what Nico Harrison says…defense wins championships.
Heat at Hawks pick, best bet
Having to quote Harrison to justify why the Heat might win this game — or even this series — should tell you all you need to know: it’s a stretch. For Miami to win even one game would require a poor shooting performance from two of Mitchell, Darius Garland, and Jerome, as well as high-quality defense from Bam Adebayo on Mobley and, ideally, more than 14 points from Andrew Wiggins. Given Mitchell’s tendency as a playoff riser — for his career, he averages 24.7 points per game in the regular season and 28.1 in the playoffs, with only small hits to his efficiency — Garland’s limitless range, and Jerome’s penchant for hitting difficult shots, I doubt it’ll happen.
The best thing that Spoelstra can do is lean heavily on backup point guard Davion Mitchell, who did hold Donovan Mitchell to five points on two-for-six shooting, including one-for-four from deep, in Game 1. Off Night played 34 minutes — the fourth-most of any player on the team — and was excellent on offense too, dropping 18 points, four rebounds, and nine assists while making eight of his 12 field goal attempts and two of his three triples. I find it hard to believe that Mitchell’s 44.7% three-point shooting since joining the Heat at the trade deadline is legitimate, given his career 34.4% mark, so Miami might not be able to bank on a star-level stat line from its defensive ace every night.
And assuming Davion Mitchell can sustainably stymie Donovan Mitchell, who does that leave on Garland? In Game 1, that was mostly Herro, who Garland dominated to the tune of 11 points on five-for-six shooting on just 17 partial possessions. Wiggins — probably the Heat’s second-best perimeter defender — wasn’t much more effective, ceding five points on perfect shooting in just a minute of game time against the Cavaliers point guard. Garland doesn’t have nearly the playoff resumé that his teammate Mitchell does, but he’s also a better and more consistent shooter and his 2024 struggles can somewhat be chalked up to a broken jaw that he suffered during the middle of the season that threw off his rhythm. I also trust Jarrett Allen to overpower Kel’el Ware inside.
The X-factor is Wiggins, who has a combination of length, playoff experience, and supreme self-confidence that makes him a high-ceiling, low-floor asset. He’s had a few good games with Miami, the best being a 42-point outburst against the Charlotte Hornets on March 23, but the same inconsistencies and injury concerns that dogged him with the Golden State Warriors have continued to affect his Heat tenure. Cleveland’s defense against opposing wings — on Sunday, a combination of Mitchell, Hunter, and Max Strus — might not be good enough to stop Jayson Tatum in the Conference Finals. It will be good enough against Wiggins.
