Obviously the following statement comes with the huge caveat that the season is only four weeks old, but with the Braves’ awful start to the season, it’s looking like the Phillies and the Mets could be the two teams battling it out all summer for the NL East crown.
As things stand on Tuesday, New York owns a three-game lead in the division following a narrow 5-4 victory in Game 1 of this series on Monday. The Mets almost blew a five-run cushion in the ninth inning, yet Edwin Diaz was able to hold on and nail down the team’s fifth straight win.
Will New York make it six in a row this evening? Let’s break it all down.
Phillies vs. Mets prediction, preview
The most interesting thing about the Mets’ amazing start is that the team hasn’t been hitting all that well. New York spent a lot of money to improve its lineup this offseason, and that was the area of the roster that was expected to carry the team through the early portion of the season, especially after injuries to Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas weakened the rotation. However, the only person that’s actually consistently providing with the lumber is Pete Alonso, who enters tonight’s tilt batting .341 with a 210 wRC+. It’s been kind of bleak beyond the Polar Bear. Juan Soto has been taking his walks, but not doing much else. Francisco Lindor suddenly has three long balls in the past two days, yet was mustering just a .301 wOBA prior to that.
Instead, it’s been people like Griffin Canning that have shouldered the load. Canning was DFA’d by the division rival Braves in the offseason, but he appears to have found a home in New York. Through his first four outings with the club, Canning has maintained a 3.44 ERA and a 3.88 xERA. The RHP has been haunted by home runs in recent years, yet Canning has made intriguing progress in that area of his game. Not only has the veteran’s strikeout rate shot back up to a respectable 23.9% in 2025, but Canning is operating with a career-high ground ball rate of 53.6%. They can’t hit them over the fence if they can’t hit them in the air, right?
On the other side of this pitching matchup, we find Cristopher Sanchez. It’ll take quite a bit for Sanchez to unseat Zack Wheeler as the Phillies’ ace, but the left-hander has certainly turned some heads so far this season, registering a 2.65 xERA with a career-best 30.7% strikeout rate in his first four starts. Sanchez doesn’t walk anybody and a career 56.9% ground ball rate showcases just how good the southpaw is at suppressing opponent launch angle. The 28-year-old might not be a household name, yet trust me when I tell you that he’s a stud.
Phillies vs. Mets pick, best bet
While I can acknowledge the shifts in Canning’s approach, we are still talking about a pitcher who surrendered an whopping 1.67 opponent home runs per nine from 2021 to 2024 — the third-most of any pitcher with at least 300 innings thrown in that span of time. Despite his success in 2025, Canning is also walking a career-high 11.4% of the batters he’s faced. At some point, that’s going to lead to some trouble.
It’s not always the best strategy to back road favorites, but I truly feel like Sanchez’s presence gives the Phillies a massive edge over the Mets on Tuesday. The lefty is going to get NL Cy Young votes this year. He’s that good.
Best Bet: Phillies ML (-135)
Sanchez shoves and most of the Mets’ bats stay cold for at least one more day.
Strong Lean: Kyle Schwarber 1+ Home Run (+310)
Schwarber is 96th percentile expected slugging (.620) and 92nd percentile expected wOBA on batted ball events (.503).
