During the opening weekend of the 2025 NBA playoffs, there weren’t really any major surprises. In fact, every single higher-seeded team won their opening game…except for one.
The team that lost was probably the most high-profile team in the league, although not the most dominant — the Los Angeles Lakers. Los Angeles shot just 39.8% from the field in Saturday’s 117-95 defeat to the Minnesota Timberwolves.
For the Lakers, losing one at Crypto.com Arena is fine. Losing two would be devastating and would more or less end the series, so tonight is a must-win game. Los Angeles has only lost back-to-back home games on two separate occasions, although one was a streak of three in a row.
Los Angeles is a six-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook (-230 on the Moneyline) and the point total is set to 209.5. Meanwhile, Minnesota is +190 on the Moneyline.
Luka Dončić 50+ Points + Rebounds + Assists (+140)
Saturday’s loss can be pinned on virtually anybody except Dončić. Although the Slovenian maestro had just one assist, tying the playoff career low that he set in Game 1 of last season’s NBA Finals, he stuffed the box score in all other ways, finishing with 37 points, eight rebounds, and two steals, making half of his shots from both the field and from deep, and playing good defense on Anthony Edwards.
But he wasn’t satisfied, saying after the game: “One assist…That’s not good enough for me.”
Dončić’s quote should strike fear in Timberwolves fans’ hearts, for there’s little on an NBA court more terrifying than a motivated Dončić, especially in the postseason, where only he and his teammate LeBron James have ever averaged 28 points, seven rebounds, and nine assists per game for their playoff careers. The fact that he only had one assist on Saturday night wasn’t entirely his fault; he had eight potential assists, but his teammates couldn’t hit their shots. His traditional lob threat, Jaxson Hayes, was useless and didn’t play after the first quarter, while non-Dončić Lakers shot just 10-for-31 from beyond the arc. Prior to this season, he had reached that number in 21 of his 50 playoff games — including 20 of his 45 non-Finals games — a slightly higher actual probability than that which the odds imply.
Naz Reid 3+ Three-Pointers Made (+150)
Reid, the reigning Sixth Man of the Year, won’t hit six threes or score 23 points every game like he did in Game 1. But if the wider trends of Sunday’s win are to be believed, he’ll continue to be a thorn in Los Angeles’ side. The Lakers did largely play four-time Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert off the floor with their small-ball lineup, holding him to just two points in 24 minutes of playing time, and it’d be surprising if they rolled out traditional center Jaxson Hayes at all tonight. The problem is that Minnesota’s five-out lineup hummed on Saturday night, so heavy minutes of Reid might not be great for Los Angeles.
JJ Redick’s strategy was simple: force the ball out of Edwards’ hands. For the most part, that strategy was successful, as the young superstar scored just 22 points on 22 shots, and Dončić did an admirable job staying on him and forcing kick-outs. But the Lakers failed to close out on shooters; eight of Reid’s nine three-point attempts came with the nearest defender more than six feet away, as did all three of Jaden McDaniels’. Reid hit six of those triples after canning 40.0% of those tries in the regular season. If Reid, McDaniels, and Julius Randle all had average shooting nights on wide-open shots and all else remained the same, the margin is four, not 22. Redick has no incentive to change his overarching strategy, so Reid should get plenty more open threes tonight.
LeBron James O2.5 Steals + Blocks (+150)
Los Angeles’ issues on Saturday started with James, who recorded only 19 points, five rebounds, and three assists, making only one of his five three-point attempts, turning the ball over four times, and finishing with a ghastly minus-22 plus-minus, the third-worst on the team. Austin Reaves, outside of a hot stretch in the third quarter, was bad too, and Rui Hachimura couldn’t get much going defensively. Of those three, I trust James the most to turn it around (obviously). And even in the rough game, he still had two of the team’s five steals and three of its four blocks.
That sort of defensive production should be sustainable; he has recorded two or more steals in 155 of his 288 games, 94 of which he also recorded at least one block in. His 485 total postseason swipes are the most in NBA history, and his 278 blocks rank 10th. Since the All-Star break, as good as the Timberwolves have been, they’ve still struggled somewhat with turnovers, allowing the 13th-most steals to opposing players, and while they’ve allowed the 11th-fewest blocks, that figure will be worse if the rarely-blocked Gobert gets fewer minutes than usual. James spent most of his time in Game 1 guarding Randle, whose 4.3 turnovers per 100 possessions are the 12th-worst among active players. The southpaw was also the 36th-most frequently blocked player in the NBA this season.
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