Allowing an eight-point first quarter lead to turn into a two-point overtime loss has shortened the Clippers’ odds on winning their first series of the 2025 NBA Playoffs. Strange, but it’s how the numbers lay out.
The Clippers opened as +160 underdogs on DraftKings Sportsbook to win their series vs. Denver. After allowing their early lead to dissolve throughout regulation, then losing by two in OT, their odds moved to +145 — making them shorter underdogs. As of Monday morning — just hours before Game 2 — the Clippers are +110 to win the series.
For those wondering what led to the Clippers’ odds shifting this way, here’s a look at some factors:
Qualitative Reasoning
Rotations
The Nuggets may be using Russell Westbrook heavily off the bench, but Denver’s minute distribution could be an issue over the series. Four of Denver’s five starters played over 45 minutes. Not one of the Clippers did. James Harden topped out at 42:48. Kawhi Leonard was the only other Clipper to log over 40 minutes (41:09).
Everyone’s minutes were inflated because of OT, but the difference illustrates the larger point. The Clippers have more players that they can utilize over the course of a game, allowing them to keep their stars in better form. Denver does not have the same luxury.
Stability
As much as the Clippers let Game 1 slip, Denver’s slow start at home wasn’t exactly ideal for a team surrounded by question marks going into the 2025 NBA Playoffs.
Up-and-down season. Head coach firing just before the playoffs — a coach who won you a ring not too long ago. The reasons why the organization and the head coach were having issues.
Clearly, no shortage of concerns.
Then factor in that the Clippers closed out the regular season 18-3, and Game 1 can easily be chalked up as a perfect storm rather than the Nuggets righting the ship.
First Playoff Series At Intuit Dome
Home-court advantage is massive. Even though it doesn’t come with rule advantages in the NBA like with the NHL and MLB, the travel and home crowd make big impacts.
But this postseason, there’s another wrinkle to Clippers home playoff games that could have an impact. Intuit Dome, which became the Clippers’ new home this season, has never played host to a playoff series.
Quantitative Reasoning
Bettor Backing
Accounting for percentage of handle and percentage of bets can provide great insight, especially in this case.
Through Game 1 and heading into Game 2, 57% of the bets on who will win the Round 1 matchup between the Clippers and Nuggets have gone toward Los Angeles. Being the popular play can be a negative, but not in this instance. That’s because a whopping 79% of the handle has gone toward the Clippers, as well.
