The Cleveland Cavaliers completed an excellent regular season in which they exceeded even the most optimistic of expectations, securing the top seed in the Eastern Conference. Donovan Mitchell is a major reason for this and has the best supporting case he has had entering the postseason. The slates are now wiped clean, and records are out the window as they prepare for a seven-game series with the Miami Heat.
Mitchell has 54 games of playoff experience under his belt and has performed well. He led the entire NBA in postseason scoring during the 2019-20 playoffs at 36.3 points per game, proving ready to rise to the playoff challenge.
Looking at this season, Mitchell has averaged 24.0 points, 5.0 assists, and 4.5 rebounds per game. He shot 36.8% from beyond the three-point arc while attempting 8.9 perimeter shots per game. This is far from his best statistical season, but it does not indicate the impact he has had. These numbers have also been a bit diluted due to plenty of blowouts occurring.
The Cavaliers enter Game 1 as 12.5-point favorites and -750 on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook for the matchup. The Heat hold +525 odds on the Moneyline with the game total set at 214.5.
With the stage set, here are my favorite Donovan Mitchell prop bets ahead of the opening game of the series.
Best Donovan Mitchell Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Mitchell’s props are listed at over/under 25.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, 5.5 assists, 3.5 made three-pointers and 35.5 combined points, rebounds and assists.
Donovan Mitchell Over 5.5 Assists (+114)
Donovan Mitchell is a score-first player who is capable of taking over a game any given night. But this is exactly why the Heat will have their full focus on getting the ball out of his hands and forcing others to beat them. There are legitimate questions about the offensive impact of Evan Mobley and some of their other complementary players, whom Miami will prefer to force to beat them. Expect some double teams and traps to be thrown in Mitchell’s direction and for the Cavaliers’ star to need to step up as a playmaker.
Mitchell averaged 5.0 assists per game across the regular season and recorded over 5.5 assists in 28 games. He has tallied as many as 14 assists in a game this year. The Louisville product is averaging 5.3 assists in matchups with the Heat this season, producing assist outputs of five, five, and six across the three regular-season matchups.
Expect the Cavaliers to counter this by surrounding Mitchell with shooters and spacing the floor. Cleveland ranked fourth in three-point attempts and second in three-point percentage across the NBA. Mitchell is a smart enough player to be able to leverage his scoring and create open three-point looks, and for this to be the story of this game. Expect increased defensive attention to be sent Mitchell’s direction and for the star guard to respond by tallying at least six assists to kick off this postseason run.
Donovan Mitchell Over 3.5 Made Three-Pointers (+114)
Speaking of the three-point line, expect Mitchell to make his impact felt from this area as well. The six-time All-Star has shot 36.8% from beyond the three-point arc this season while launching 8.9 perimeter shots per game. He is averaging 3.3 made three-pointers per game and has recorded over 3.5 made three-pointers in 33 games this season.
Miami has a solid overall defense, but they have been vulnerable to opponents from beyond the three-point arc. The Heat rank 17th in opponents’ three-point attempts allowed and 14th in opponents’ three-point percentage. Mitchell connected with over 3.5 made three-pointers in two of the three regular-season games, shooting 10-for-27 overall.
Another counter for the expected double teams and traps is to utilize Mitchell in more of an off-ball role. Expect Cleveland to put their star guard in motion and generate some three-point looks for him. The further out from the basket, the more difficult it is for Miami to get creative in their defensive schemes. Look for Mitchell to be completely comfortable pulling up from distance by knocking down four or more three-pointers tonight, just as he has done 20 times already in the playoffs.
