In the first round of the NBA Playoffs, the Houston Rockets face a Golden State Warriors squad with plenty of star power… wait a minute… what year is it again? No, hoops fans haven’t accidentally time-traveled back to the mid-to-late 2010s. For better or for worse, dear reader, it’s still 2025 and the Rockets and Warriors are set to match up in the postseason once again in a battle between the Western Conference’s No. 2 and No. 7 seeds.
While Stephen Curry is still sinking three-pointers from way downtown to the soundtrack of Mike Breen’s ever-iconic “BANG,” few vestiges of the Warriors’ dynasty remain on the roster. The passing of time is even more apparent in Houston, where an exciting young core now walk the red carpets of Toyota Center as they seek to do what their predecessors never could and eliminate Golden State from the postseason.
With the opening game of this series set for Sunday, DraftKings Network has you covered with a Rockets vs. Warriors preview, plus odds and a top betting pick.
Rockets vs. Warriors preview
Houston Rockets
The Houston Rockets looked good last year in their first season under head coach Ime Udoka and showed clear signs of growth, but even the most optimistic fans couldn’t predict this season’s surge to the second seed. With the third-best record in the NBA at 52-30, this young team accelerated their path to playoff contention and stunned the Association by flat-out refusing to lose time and again. Now, they make their first NBA Playoffs appearance since the 2019-2020 campaign
Most playoff-caliber teams possess either a true alpha or a solid 1A option at the very least, but the Rockets are one of those special exceptions who succeed without a superstar. They have some nice pieces, sure, but they play team ball and it’s clear the unit is greater than the sum of its parts. Under Udoka, the squad’s identity is a gritty, hard-nosed, and physical defense which beats the snot out of opponents. Over this season’s 82-game sample, Houston ranks fifth in defensive rating and sixth in opponent points per game while holding their opposition to the sixth-lowest field goal percentage and 11th-lowest three-point percentage.
The defensive consistency is impressive and keeps the Rockets in games even when the outlook gets ugly on the offensive end. The team falls 13th in points per game and is remarkably inefficient at putting the ball in the basket with a true shooting percentage of 55.3, which falls bottom-seven in the NBA. Yet somehow, they’re 12th in offensive rating and seventh in net rating. As it turns out, inefficiency doesn’t really matter if you just rebound all your misses — Houston leads the NBA in rebounding and hits the offensive glass at a league-best rate of 36.3%. Predictably, the Rockets score more second-chance points than anyone else off these extra opportunities.
Golden State Warriors
The Warriors’ season is a tale of two halves. Following the offseason departure of franchise icon Klay Thompson, the Dubs struggled to replace his production and showed only flashes of their former contender ways. Sitting a couple of games below .500 prior to the trade deadline, drama swirled around Curry’s desire to compete over the twilight of his career.
In early February, a disgruntled Jimmy Butler came to town — now, the sun shines a few lumens brighter in the Bay Area than before. Since Butler’s first game on February 8, the Warriors possess the NBA’s third-best record at 23-8 over that span. They fall just outside the top-10 in points per game and shoot the ball just slightly more efficiently than Houston, but they rank eighth in offensive rating while attempting the third-most free throws and dishing the fourth-most assists. Butler’s presence as a ball handler and ability as a downhill threat adds a dimension to the offense the team sorely lacked earlier in the season. He averages 17.9 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 5.9 assists per contest as a Warrior and is a high-energy second option alongside Curry’s 24.5 points and 6.0 assists.
The Dubs’ defense is quite formidable. Since the Butler trade, they rank first in defensive rating and hold opponents to the third-fewest points per game. They stifle whatever team they share the floor with, but one of their own calling cards is matchup switchability thanks to a small lineup with Draymond Green at the five spot, which creates plenty of opportunities for disruption. They force an NBA-best 17.6 opponent turnovers per contest, and much like the Rockets’ offensive rebounding, Golden State scores an impressive 22.8 points off turnovers. You guessed it, that’s the most in the league.
Keys to the Series
In some aspects, the Rockets and Warriors are more similar than fans of either side care to admit. Neither squad possesses superb floor-spacers at the starting four and five slots. Their overall shooting efficiency is lacking, for the most part. When the offense can’t sink shots, they simply drag opponents into the mud with them. When foes feel drained and show weakness at the end of games, these teams clamp down and deliver an alligator-esque death roll through the muck ’til the final bell rings. More often than not, the strategy works.
Playoff Experience
In the latest duel between these franchises, playoff experience remains the differentiator. The Warriors aren’t what they once were during their previous showdowns against Houston, but the vast majority of the team has been here before and understands the pressure involved in a playoff environment. Golden State’s roster includes plenty of elder statesmen, whereas Houston’s lineup includes just a handful of savvy veterans with playoff experience. Aside from Fred VanVleet, Dillon Brooks, Steven Adams and Aaron Holiday, none of their rotation players have touched the court during the NBA Playoffs. The value of postseason experience cannot be overstated, so the lack thereof for the Rockets’ young core appears concerning.
Houston’s Top Talent?
Really though, the Rockets aren’t truly expected to contend for a championship, at least not now. The team’s mission is to win a title, yes, but just gaining playoff experience is a win for a young team already ahead of schedule. The second key to the series is a question the franchise’s front office looks to answer over the coming weeks — who steps up as an alpha under the postseason lights?
Alperen Sengun earned his first All-Star nod this season by averaging 19.1 points, 10.3 rebounds and just shy of five assists, but players of his archetype often face an uphill battle in the playoffs. Jalen Green led the team in scoring with 21.0 PPG and showed improvement, though his sky-high peaks are unpredictable. Amen Thompson stands out as one of the NBA’s emerging two-way talents, but his scoring bag remains somewhat limited (albeit always highlight-worthy). It’ll be fun to see which young Rocket, if any, is built for this moment.
Physicality
The officiating feels different during the playoffs as referees bite their whistle and the criteria as to what constitutes a foul shifts closer toward the more physical NBA of years past your elders won’t stop yearning for. With calls harder to come by, the game changes. Admittedly, giving Draymond Green and Dillon Brooks a longer leash is a bit terrifying, but these teams are near-locks to ramp up their already-high physicality on defense to whatever degree the refs allow. Both the Rockets and Warriors benefit from a more lenient whistle, so this might become a defensive slugfest with the less-tired team emerging as the eventual winner. Houston’s legs are younger, but the Warriors still pack plenty of punch despite the wear and tear on their tread.
Rockets vs. Warriors odds, best bet
Rockets vs. Warriors odds on DraftKings Sportsbook
Perhaps the most intriguing facet of this matchup lies in the betting odds. Typically, No. 2 seeds are heavily favored to win their series against No. 7 seeds. Whether it be due to the discrepancy in playoff experience between these teams, how loaded the Western Conference is, or the fact Golden State trots out a top-10 player of all time in their starting lineup, the odds for this series defy historical trends.
The Rockets enter as the second-best team in the conference, and again, they possess the third-best regular season record in the NBA. Oddsmakers don’t seem to care. DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Rockets as +145 underdogs to win this series outright, while the Warriors enter the seven-game format as -185 favorites in spite of their seeding. This is exceedingly rare, which means bettors might have an opportunity to take advantage of the odds.
According to DraftKings Sportsbook’s public betting splits, most of the money actually lies on Houston to win the series. These splits say 70% of the market’s handle has been placed on the Rockets to emerge victorious in the opening round, which is remarkable given that just 45% of total bets placed favor the team to win the series. On the other side of the coin, 55% of bettors do favor Golden State, but that number still feels a bit low in comparison to chatter from fans and analysts alike on social media. Based on the betting splits, it appears the public feels unafraid to take the younger team and root for an upset.
Rockets vs. Warriors best bet
This battle between NBA generations has the makings of an extremely entertaining series with something for every fan. The Rockets are a scrappy, up-and-coming underdog with a highlight-reel young core of Sengun, Thompson, and Jalen Green surrounded by known personalities like Brooks and VanVleet, who is a former Warrior-killer himself. They face off against a couple of the league’s old-guard stars in Curry and Butler, the latter of whom forms one of the Association’s most expressive and unpredictable duos with Draymond Green. Can Playoff Jimmy and Steph stay red-hot as they were in the Play-In Tournament, or will the new-school Rockets exorcise their franchise’s blue-and-yellow playoff demons to shatter Dub Nation’s championship dreams?
This Rockets vs. Warriors series looks like appointment viewing and has the makings of a brutal seven-game showdown. Predicting the winner is tough, but DraftKings Sportsbook provides plenty of ways to get in on the action this postseason — taking this one to go exactly seven games has best-bet juice at +220 odds.
Rockets vs. Warriors best bet: Series to go seven exact games (+220)
