The long grind of the NBA regular season and a brief intermission for the play-in tournament are over, meaning the playoffs have finally arrived. The slate has been wiped clean, the brackets are set, and each team will square off in their respective best-of-seven series.
There is an exciting slate on Saturday to kick things off with four matchups taking place. To start, the Indiana Pacers host the Milwaukee Bucks, freshly off the news of Damian Lillard making his return to the floor soon following his blood clot concerns. At 3:30 p.m. ET, the Los Angeles Clippers play the Denver Nuggets before the Detroit Pistons take on the New York Knicks at 6 p.m. in another one of the more intriguing series. The final matchup of the night will be between the Los Angeles Lakers and Minnesota Timberwolves as LeBron James and Luka Doncic prepare for their first postseason action together.
There is plenty of exciting basketball ahead, with the opening day setting the tone. Here is my favorite prop bet in each matchup across the Saturday schedule as the full postseason grind begins.
Brook Lopez Under 4.5 Rebounds (-115)
At 37 years old, Brook Lopez already has an impressive resume under his belt and one of the more unique career trajectories we have ever seen. Going from a true post-oriented, old-fashioned big man to a 7-foot-1 three-point specialist extended his career and made him a crucial part of this Bucks organization. However, his age showed more than ever this season, and this matchup with the Pacers will be especially difficult for him.
Overall this year, Lopez has averaged 13.0 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 1.9 blocks per game. He is still shooting 37.3% from beyond the three-point arc on 4.7 perimeter shots per game while suiting up for 80 of 82 regular-season matchups.
When looking at the rebounding numbers, the former All-Star was held to under 4.5 rebounds in 35 games this season. He faced off with the Pacers four times during the regular season, producing rebounding outputs of two, five, five, and seven boards. He was held to just two rebounds in the most recent game despite clocking 32:56 of action.
The biggest factor that concerns me regarding Lopez is the return of Bobby Portis. After serving his 25-game suspension, Portis has immediately stepped in for three of the final games of the season, dropping two double-doubles and averaging 16.3 points with 9.3 rebounds per game. Lopez is dependent on being glued to the paint as a rim protector, and this has the potential to be exposed due to the perimeter shooting of Myles Turner. Expect Portis to take over a significant portion of Lopez’s minutes, and Antetokounmpo will be the primary rebounding option even when Lopez is on the floor. Despite his size and the success that he has had, this is not a matchup Lopez should be expected to shine in. Look for him to be held to under 4.5 rebounds in the series opener.
Kawhi Leonard Over 35.5 Points, Rebounds, & Assists (-105)
The biggest priority of the Los Angeles Clippers all season was getting Kawhi Leonard to the postseason healthy. Despite a concerning track record in this effort, the mission has been accomplished. Not only is Leonard available, but he has shown a renewed burst in his athleticism across the closing stretch of the season that has not been seen in years. When Leonard is at his best, the list of players better than him is incredibly short, and this looks to be the case heading into the playoffs.
Across the 37 games of regular season action Leonard suited up for, he averaged 21.5 points, 5.9 rebounds, and 3.1 assists. Taking away the early parts of the year when his minutes were extremely limited, Leonard averaged 25.7 points, 7.1 rebounds, and 3.4 assists per game. In the final game of the regular season against the Warriors, which was essentially a playoff game with seeding on the line, Leonard finished with 33 points, seven assists, and six rebounds while playing 47 minutes of action.
Looking at the matchup, this Denver Nuggets defense leaves plenty to be desired. They finished the regular season ranked 25th in opponent points allowed, 21st in opponent three-point attempts allowed, and 22nd in opponent three-point percentage. Denver is limited in their high-level perimeter defenders, and Nikola Jokic provides little resistance at the rim. The kid gloves are off from Leonard’s limitation standpoint, so expect the two-time Finals MVP to provide a reminder of what an elite talent he is. There has never been a question of his talent, just his availability. Look for him to set the tone in the series opener and record over 35.5 combined points, rebounds, and assists.
Karl-Anthony Towns Under 11.5 Rebounds (-110)
The New York Knicks made a surprising trade for Karl-Anthony Towns shortly before the start of the season to change the outlook of the organization in a major way. Towns has largely exceeded expectations in his first season in New York, but how it translates to the playoffs will play a huge role in how this trade is looked upon moving forward. The five-time All-Star averaged 24.4 points, 12.8 rebounds, and 3.1 assists across the regular season while connecting on 42.0% of his three-point shots.
For all that he brings to the table, Towns will also be a player circled on the Pistons’ scouting report for his defensive shortcomings. Towns fouls at one of the highest rates in the league, is underwhelming as a rim protector, and struggles when forced to guard on the perimeter. While the Knicks have embraced an identity of toughness and lean on their defensive-minded approach, so do the Detroit Pistons.
Jalen Duren and Isaiah Stewart will headline the effort, but Detroit has several hard-nosed big bodies that will each attack the glass. New York has reintroduced Mitchell Robinson into the rotation to help with this concern, but this does not help Towns’ outlook for rebounding the basketball himself. If the Knicks go big, expect Robinson to eat into Towns’ rebounding total. If they remain with Towns at the five, expect the swarming big bodies on Detroit to cause some issues. Even with his impressive 12.8 rebounds per game on the year, Towns was held under 11.5 rebounds in 32 games this season. With foul concerns and a tough matchup, there are too many ways this can go wrong in the process of reaching the lofty total. Towns will have his moments in this series, but expect the opening game to be a bit of a wake-up call from a rebounding perspective and for him to be held to less than 11.5 rebounds.
Austin Reaves Over 2.5 Made Three-Pointers (-125)
All eyes are sure to be on Luka Doncic and LeBron James as they take on the Minnesota Timberwolves in their first playoff action together. But, this massive attention is part of what makes Austin Reaves so valuable. With the primary perimeter defenders set to occupy the Lakers’ top two stars, the opportunity is there for Reaves to make his mark. This is especially the case with teams electing to trap Doncic and force the ball out of his hands at a significant rate. While I have my doubts about Minnesota possessing the personnel to do this effectively, this is an option they will at least hold in their arsenal when attempting to give themselves the best chance to win.
Looking at Reaves’ production this season, he averaged 20.2 points, 5.8 assists, and 4.5 rebounds per game. He has shot 37.7% from beyond the three-point arc while launching 7.7 perimeter shots per game. Since Doncic joined the team, Reaves’ three-point percentage has grown to 40.1%. Minnesota has done a nice job defending the perimeter this season, ranking seventh in opponents’ three-point attempts and sixth in opponents’ three-point percentage allowed.
However, there are only so many things you can take away from an offense and I expect the Timberwolves to be willing to live and die with Reaves over the names ahead of him. The Oklahoma product closed the regular season connecting with over 2.5 made three-pointers in seven of the final 10 games and 39 games overall. Look for him to carry this momentum into the playoffs and punish the Timberwolves whenever the opportunity presents itself.
