The Golden State Warriors and Houston Rockets are set to face off in a clash of eras during the opening round of the NBA playoffs. The youthful Rockets are back in the postseason for the first time since 2019-20, while the Warriors traded for Jimmy Butler midseason to keep the championship window open around Steph Curry.
It was not the cleanest path to the playoffs, with an overtime loss to the Clippers in the final game of the regular season dropping the Warriors to the play-in tournament. Golden State took care of business by defeating the Memphis Grizzlies 121-116 in the play-in tournament to secure this postseason opportunity. Their record does not fully tell the story. Including the play-in game, the Warriors are 24-7 with Jimmy Butler in the lineup, with just about every metric showing improvement.
Despite Houston going 52-30 in the regular season and earning the second seed in the West, both oddsmakers and the public still have their doubts about this Rockets team.
Looking at the series price on DraftKings Sportsbook, Golden State holds -185 odds of winning the series while Houston holds +145 odds. The series total is set at 5.5 with the over favored at -200 odds and the under set at +160.
Heading into the opening game of the series, the Rockets are slight -120 favroties on the Moneyline while the Warriors hold +100 odds of winning outright on DraftKings Sportsbook. The game total is set at 212.5.
Let’s take a look at how the public is betting this Western Conference clash.
Betting Splits
Looking at the series overall, the Warriors are backed by 55% of the bets but only 30% of the betting handle. This means 70% of the handle is backing the Rockets to advance, but this only coming on 45% of the bets.
Looking at the splits for Game 1, the outlook is a little different:
With the Rockets favored by one point on the spread, 59% of the bets and 87% of the handle are backing Houston to cover the number. When just looking at the moneyline, 33% of the bets and 55% of the handle are backing Houston.
Only 41% of the best and 13% of the handle are on the Warriors +1. However, 67% of the moneyline bets and 45% of the handle are on Golden State’s moneyline. This makes sense from a value perspective with such a narrow spread.
Both the public and sharps are flooding in money on the over of 212.5 with 87% of the bets and 83% of the handle on the over.
These teams faced off twice since Golden State’s trade for Jimmy Butler, with each side taking home a victory. It is worth noting that in their final regular-season matchup, Houston won 106-96 with Steph Curry being limited to three points on 1-for-10 shooting.
Most Popular Player Props
Here are the top five most bet player props for Game 1 of the series:
- Jalen Green Over 2.5 Made Three-Pointers (-110)
- Stephen Curry to Record 30+ Points (+215)
- Jimmy Butler to Record 25+ Points (+140)
- Stephen Curry to Record 25+ Points (-130)
- Fred VanVleet Under 14.5 Points (-125)
Jalen Green may top the list for players with the most to prove in this series, and plenty of DraftKings Sportsbook users are believing in him to record over 2.5 made three-pointers. The 23-year-old averaged 21.0 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 3.4 assists per game during the season while playing all 82 games. Green is shooting 35.4% from beyond the three-point arc on 8.1 perimeter shots per game. He is averaging 2.9 made three-pointers per game and has made over 2.5 three-pointers in 47 games. The NBA playoffs are a different beast, and Green could do a lot for his doubters with a strong performance out of the gates.
It is no surprise to see Steph Curry among the leaders in player prop bets, with the four-time champion doing a nice job of winning his battle with Father Time. Across the regular season, he averaged 24.5 points, 6.0 assists, and 4.4 rebounds per game. He led the NBA in three-point attempts and three-point makes per game, connecting on 39.7% of his perimeter shots. Curry tallied 30+ points in 21 games and 25+ points in 34 of the 70 games he has played.
Jimmy Butler played 30 games with the Warriors in the regular season, averaging 17.9 points, 5.8 assists, and 5.5 rebounds. He tallied 25+ points in seven of these games and flashed that “Playoff Jimmy” may still be in there by dropping 38 points, along with seven rebounds and six assists, during the play-in tournament victory over the Grizzlies.
