The 2025 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs are here and the opening round is set to start with a bang. Out in a wild Western Conference, two rivals clash as the Dallas Stars battle the Colorado Avalanche in what should be one of the most interesting series not only of the first round, but throughout the entire postseason.
These teams have some playoff history — the Stars sent the Avalanche packing in six games during last year’s conference semifinals — but this series has no shortage of grudge matches. Mikko Rantanen once hoisted a Stanley Cup with the Avalanche but was abruptly traded by the franchise earlier this season in a deal which came as a shock to the forward. After a brief stint in Carolina, Rantanen is now settled in as a Dallas Star with the opportunity to crush his former team’s championship dreams alongside another former Av, Matt Duchene. On the flip side, Colorado’s Valeri Nichushkin looks to eliminate his own former teammates.
After the trade which sent Mikko to Dallas, the Stars surged to the top of Stanley Cup odds at +650 to win it all on DraftKings Sportsbook. Entering the first round, however, they’ve fallen to +1000 and the Avalanche now sit atop the leaderboard at +750. For either team to lift Lord Stanley, they’ll have to make it through this brutal opening-round matchup. While the oddsmakers split the two sides at -110 apiece to win the series, the Avs are now favored at -155 while the Stars are a +135 underdog.
Let’s dive into the details with analysis, a prediction, and a top pick for Stars vs. Avalanche.
Stars vs. Avalanche first-round series preview
Dallas Stars
Dallas won 50 games this season to finish with the fifth-most points in the NHL. With one of the league’s deepest forward groups consisting of myriad top-line quality options, the Stars kill opponents with finesse rather than physicality, as well as a deadly goalscoring attack on the break. The team’s calling card in recent years, a stellar high-scoring offense, was effective as always with an average of 3.35 goals per game, good for third-best among all teams.
Their power play looked paltry through the season’s opening months, but they rank second in power play goals scored since the start of the new year and possess a league-best power play goal differential of 37 over that span. The defense also performed admirably over the regular-season sample with just 2.71 goals allowed per game, sixth-fewest in the NHL, as well as the fourth-best penalty kill percentage at 82.0%.
To top those stats off, the Stars played this high-level hockey despite center Tyler Seguin and defenseman Miro Heiskanen each missing multiple months. Multi-time Exec of the Year Jim Nill’s midseason acquisition of Mikael Granlund is also paying dividends, while Rantanen gives Dallas a top-tier star who can put them over the hill. Between March 22 and April 3, Dallas won eight straight contests and seemed to be catching fire as the playoffs neared.
Hot or Not?
The Stars had the makings of a world-beater — until they didn’t. They dropped the final seven games of the regular season, including an improbable collapse up 5-2 in the final minute of regulation and a 4-0 shutout at home against the Presidents’ Trophy-winning Jets. Over that span, Dallas has allowed a league-worst 36.1 shots and 4.86 goals per game; their penalty kill is dead-last at 56.5%; their offense is scoring at the ninth-lowest rate in the league; and they can’t close out games with 18 third-period goals allowed, plus two more in overtime losses.
Pucks to the face have been the story of the Stars’ season — this cold stretch certainly feels like the equivalent of taking frozen rubber to the teeth at 90 mph. Can they flip the switch and get hot when it matters most? Maybe, but it doesn’t appear likely. While Heiskanen may return sometime during this series, leading goal-scorer Jason Robertson is now week-to-week after sustaining a lower-body injury in a meaningless final game of the regular season, too. The vibes are poor, to put it nicely.
Colorado Avalanche
Despite a slow start to their own campaign, the Avalanche rebounded nicely to the tune of a 102-point finish, good for seventh in the NHL. With Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar, one of the best duos in the entire sport, it would’ve been criminal to see their season play out any other way.
Colorado ranks top-six in goals per game at 3.33, notably scoring just two fewer total goals than Dallas. Their power play percentage of 26.1% is the league’s eighth-best mark and their 31 power play goals rank seventh overall. It’s tough to have a poor offense with such a talented tandem running the show — MacKinnon had a relative down year but still registered 116 points, while Makar’s career-high 92 placed him firmly at the top of the leaderboard for contributions by defensemen. It’s also noteworthy that Martin Necas, acquired in the original Rantanen trade, actually finished third on the team with 83 points of his own on 27 goals and 56 assists.
The Avs’ offense is great, and once they shook up their goalie situation via trades in November and December, their defense made significant strides to also look the part of a title contender. Mackenzie Blackwood made his first start in net on December 14. Since that point, Colorado shuts opponents down, allowing an impressive 2.39 per game and just 122 in total, second-fewest in the league. Their penalty kill percentage of 83.3% is also the NHL’s third-best mark over that span.
Hot or Not?
The offense gets most of the credit, but the Avalanche are sneakily-built as a defensive-minded team. They’ve got tons of speed and their roster is plenty deep, but they don’t sacrifice scoring ability by any means. Of course, the return of Gabriel Landeskog also hovers over the organization — Colorado’s captain hasn’t played an NHL game since June 2022 but is nearing a return following a lengthy recovery from a knee cartilage transplant. After making two rehab appearances in the AHL last week, he may see his first NHL action in over 1,000 days when this series begins.
Given their roster and the emotional motivation of their captain’s return, it’s not surprising that the odds have shifted in the Avalanche’s favor over the past several days. Their 4-3 record over this month’s games means they aren’t particularly hot, but it may not matter since Colorado clearly fields the best player on the ice in MacKinnon.
Stars vs. Avalanche first-round series predictions, best bets
Given the history between these teams and several of their key players, as well as the talent involved on both sides, this round of Stars vs. Avalanche has the makings of must-watch TV. Based on those factors alone, this is a Western Conference Final-caliber matchup rather than a product for the opening round. Regardless, the playoff format is what it is, leaving fans to enjoy the high-stakes hockey in front of them.
What will define this series? The simple answer is the injury situation. Heiskanen is expected to miss the first game or two, but could potentially return at some point. His reintegration into the lineup isn’t a fix-all for the Stars — far from it, really — but his presence provides much-needed star power which Dallas lacks on the blue line. Thomas Harley is a great player, but he just can’t carry average-to-replacement-level defenders on his back every game. Furthermore, the extent of Robertson’s injury and who steps up in the meantime will be key if the Stars want to pull off an upset. Whether it’s Rantanen, Wyatt Johnston, Roope Hintz, Matt Duchene, or a now-healthy Seguin, someone must pick up the slack in the points department.
On a similar injury-related note, Landeskog’s return is also an X-factor here. After such a long absence, predicting how he’ll perform is essentially impossible. It’s unclear whether he’ll even see much time on the ice, so the range of outcomes is wide. He’s nearly a point-per-game player with 67 points across 69 playoff appearances, so if he’s even 70% of his old self, he’s an impactful player.
Best Bet/Top Pick
If the version of the Stars (and especially Jake Oettinger) from before their recent losing streak shows up, they’ve certainly got a chance to win this series. That chance only increases with the return of Heiskanen at some point, but they have to flip the playoff switch and lock in from the get-go when the series opens on Saturday. In a sport in which momentum reigns supreme, though, Dallas is in dangerous territory. They should steal a couple games, but unless they can totally shed the bad juju from this month, this is the Avalanche’s series to win.
For more info on how the public is betting this series, check out this article, too.
