The Hawks are hosting the Heat for a win-or-go home Play-In Tournament matchup Friday. The winner of this game will become the No. 8 seed in the Eastern Conference and face the Cavaliers in the first round, while the loser’s season will be over. On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Heat are favored by one-point and this game carries a total of 219.5 points.
Below, I dive into three of my favorite player prop bets for Hawks vs. Heat on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Best Bulls vs. Heat Player Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Tyler Herro Over 31.5 Points + Assists (-120)
Herro rose to the occasion of Wednesday’s Play-In matchup vs. the Bulls, with the guard posting 38 points, five rebounds and four assists across 37.1 minutes. Herro would have likely seen over 40 minutes if Miami didn’t run away with a 19-point win and, with the Heat only favored by one-point for this matchup with the Hawks, Herro should surpass that threshold with Miami’s season on the line Friday.
The Hawks are also perfect matchup for Herro. Since the All-Star break, Atlanta ranks sixth in pace and 21st in defensive rating. Herro has faced the Hawks three times this season and he has exceeded 31.5 PA in two of those games. Herro is leading the Heat with a 27.7% usage rate and a 28.4% assist percentage since the All-Star break, and he should have no issues clearing 31.5 PA on Friday.
Dyson Daniels Under 13.5 Points (-125)
In Tuesday’s Play-In matchup vs. the Magic, Daniels struggled as a scorer, finishing with only seven points. The shooting guard was timid offensively with so much at stake, as Daniels’ 13.7% usage rate in this contest ranked eighth for the Hawks. The 22-year-old has now scored 10 points or fewer in three straight games and the Heat are by no means a get-right spot for Daniels.
Since the All-Star break, Miami ranks seventh in defensive rating and fourth-to-last in pace. The Heat are giving up the second-fewest points to shooting guards this season and Daniels has only scored over 13.5 points in one of his three matchups with Miami this season. In a Game 7 atmosphere Friday, Daniels should fall short of 13.5 points.
Trae Young Under 3.5 Made Three Pointers (-140)
This line is simply too high for Young against the Heat. As noted above, Miami ranks seventh in defensive rating and fourth-to-last in pace since the All-Star break. With everything at stake Wednesday vs. the Bulls, the Heat held Chicago to 27% on three-pointers. Overall, the Bulls only scored 90 points as a team, which was a season-low for the club.
Young has faced the Heat four times this season and he only went over 3.5 made three-pointers in one of those games. In these four matchups, Young only averaged 2.3 made three pointers per game and he shot an ugly 26% from beyond the arc. Overall, Young is only averaging 2.9 made three pointers per game this season while shooting 34% on those attempts. Expecting the guard to light it up from deep in this do-or-die scenario with the Heat is unreasonable and Young is a must-bet for this under.
