All eyes will be on Memphis tonight with the Western Conference’s final playoff spot up for grabs. The Grizzlies will host the Mavericks in a do-or-die battle between two Southwest Division rivals. It’s been a tumultuous few months of injuries, personnel change, and off-court drama for both clubs. Now, they’ll leave it all on the line in Friday’s must-win showdown.
Memphis enters this contest as 6.5-point favorites, with the over/under set at 221.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Here are three player props catching my eye tonight.
Desmond Bane over 21.5 points (-120)
Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr. have firmly established themselves as Memphis’ best players. That doesn’t mean Desmond Bane is a scrub; the guard has a claim as the NBA’s best non-All-Star. This season, the TCU alum averaged 19.2 points, 6.1 rebounds and 5.3 assists per game. The 26-year-old scored at least 20 points in 36 of his 69 appearances (52.2%).
In most games, there’s clear risk in backing a third scoring option. However, it’s important to note that Bane typically thrives in this matchup. The fifth-year-pro has put up 27.2 points during his last five meetings with Dallas. Although the Mavericks are a better defensive unit with Anthony Davis healthy, they still had the NBA’s seventh-worst defensive rating post-All-Star break (120.4). If anything, AD’s presence should force the ball out of Jackson Jr.’s hands, and into Bane’s, tonight.
Klay Thompson under 2.5 assists (-145)
Klay Thompson delivered a vintage performance on Wednesday, torching the Kings with 23 points on 8-of-11 shooting. Together with Davis, the duo combined for 50 points en route to a 120-106 Dallas victory. The former Splash Bro’s shooting has never been in question, even at the age of 35. This season, he’s posted 14.0 points per game while connecting on 39.1% of his three-point attempts.
Thompson’s passing is a different story; the veteran has never been much of a distributor throughout his career. That’s remained true even on a Dallas team missing point guard Kyrie Irving (ACL). The five-time All-Star has notched more than two assists only six times during his last 20 outings. The Grizzlies have allowed the 14th-most dimes per game to opponents this season (27.0). However, since firing head coach Taylor Jenkins in March, Memphis has played at a slower pace. With fewer possessions, Thompson will have an even tougher time finding his teammates on Friday.
Anthony Davis over 11.5 rebounds (-125)
Dallas’ hopes of salvaging its season rest solely on Anthony Davis’ shoulders. Following the blockbuster Luka Doncic trade, The Brow played one game with the Mavs before suffering an adductor strain. The injured center was held out for nearly two months before returning on March 24th against the Nets. Over eight games played since then, AD has averaged 19.3 points and 9.4 rebounds while shooting 44.8% from the field.
As previously mentioned, Davis dominated Sacramento on Wednesday (27 PTS, 9 REB). Even if he struggles to score, Dallas’ superstar should find success as a rebounder tonight. Memphis has surrendered 52.9 boards per game to opponents, 12th-most in basketball. In nine of Davis’ last 15 games vs. the Grizzlies, he’s hauled in at least 12 rebounds. In this high-stakes elimination game, expect the best (and biggest) player on the court to make an impact on the glass.
