The NBA Playoffs have arrived, and despite being the 2-seed in the Eastern Conference, the defending champions are the odds on favorites to return to the NBA Finals. The Boston Celtics enter the postseason predominantly healthy, with Jaylen Brown’s knee being the only question mark. I’ll admit, that’s a big question mark if Brown isn’t healthy, but I think we have reason to believe that the NBA Finals MVP will return to close to full strength by the time his team needs him to be at his best.
Brown’s been practicing in full all week, and by the time the C’s take the floor on Easter Sunday for Game 1 against the Orlando Magic, Brown will have had 12 days since playing his last game. I think that rest will do him well, and as monster favorites in the series, Boston can afford to bring Brown along slowly if it needs to.
Orlando has given the Celtics some issues over the last few years, mostly due to size and defense. The Magic are probably the most difficult matchup for the Celtics out of the options from the Play-In teams, but this is still a series the Celts should win in five or fewer games. That would leave a series against the Knicks or Pistons, with the more likely option being New York, which is a -400 favorite to advance. The Celtics have owned the Knicks the last two seasons, going 7-1 with the only loss in a game they sat the starters. The Knicks pushed the Celtics to overtime in the most recent matchup, but otherwise, Boston won the other three games by an average of 21 points. That would be another series I like the Celtics to come out in five games or less.
An Eastern Conference Finals matchup against the Cleveland Cavaliers seems like the collision course here, and has been bet from -130 out to -175 on DraftKings Sportsbook — and still a good bet in my opinion. Boston bounced Cleveland from the postseason en route to the NBA Finals last year, but that was before the Cavs turned a corner this season (not to mention Donovan Mitchell got injured during the series). Cleveland is the only team in the east that I feel can truly threaten Boston in the conference, but beating the Celtics four times in a series is going to prove difficult.
The Celts and Cavs split the regular season series 2-2, with both teams winning a home and road game. Of course, the Cavs would have home court advantage this time around, but that’s something that doesn’t concern me at all with this Celtics team. While TD Garden creates a tremendous playoff atmosphere, this version of the Celtics has been at its best on the road. That’s been true for many of these recent playoff runs, but I think this team has a chance to be really special on the road during this postseason in particular.
The Celtics went a ridiculous 33-8 on the road this season, outscoring opponents by 9.4 points per game. The locker room has rallied around playing on the road, and I think would be very comfortable starting this series on the road, particularly with all the pressure on the Cavs to open the series with home victories if they want to pull the upset.
I like Boston’s matchups throughout the Eastern Conference, so the bottom line is that this comes down to one thing — health. We can handicap a lot of things, but we can’t predict injuries. That said, I think the Celtics have done the best they can to protect their players this season, giving the key guys more rest than they have in the past. I like where things stand going into postseason play, and am firing on a large play for the Celtics to return to the NBA Finals for a third time in four years.
Best Bet Eastern Conference Winner: Boston Celtics (-145) 4-units
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