Four more NBA teams will face off tonight to decide the ultimate fate of their season. Two teams will begin their offseason journey to improve, while the others will earn a chance at taking down the top seed in their respective conference during tonight’s NBA play-in tournament finale.
The Miami Heat will face the Atlanta Hawks in the Eastern Conference at 7:00 p.m. ET to kick off the night. Miami cruised past the Bulls to put an end to their season in the first play-in game, while the Orlando Magic blew the Hawks out earlier this week. The Heat are narrow -115 favorites on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook while the Hawks hold -105 odds with the game total set at 220.5.
Later in the night, the Dallas Mavericks and Memphis Grizzlies will face off for the final seed in the Western Conference. Memphis was unable to complete its comeback effort against the Warriors earlier this week with Ja Morant suffering an ankle injury in the process, which is worth noting ahead of tonight’s game. The Dallas Mavericks had no trouble taking down the Sacramento Kings and will look for their second consecutive play-in upset. Memphis enters as 6-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook while Dallas holds +220 odds on the Moneyline. The game total is set at 221.
With the NBA playoffs set to hit their full stride tomorrow, here are my favorite player prop bets ahead of the final night of play-in action.
Zaccharie Risacher Over 1.5 Made Three-Pointers (-115)
The opening play-in matchup went about as badly as it possibly could for the Atlanta Hawks. They suffered a 120-95 loss in which Trae Young was ejected from the game, and they shot 38.1% from the field and 19.0% from beyond the three-point arc as a team. Zaccharie Risacher was not excluded from this, finishing with seven points and three rebounds in his 29 minutes of action. The rookie shot 2-for-10 from the floor and 1-for-5 from beyond the three-point arc.
Looking at the season as a whole, Risacher has averaged 12.6 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 1.2 assists per game across his 24.6 minutes of action. He is shooting 35.5% from beyond the three-point arc while launching 4.6 three-point attempts per game. Since the All-Star break, his scoring output has increased to 14.6 points per game, and he is shooting 40.7% from beyond the three-point arc. He has connected on over 1.5 made three-pointers in 35 games this season, including once against the Miami Heat. He closed the season connecting with over 1.5 made three-pointers in five of his final six games
Expect the full focus of the Miami Heat defense to be on limiting Trae Young’s impact and preventing him from taking over this game. Risacher will be the beneficiary of the traps and double-team sent in the Hawks’ star’s direction as the Heat look to get the ball out of Young’s hands. While he will likely never live up to the expectations a number one overall pick typically carries, Risacher deserves credit for coming into his own down the home stretch of the season. He has not looked afraid of the moment and has given the Hawks some high-level minutes on both sides of the ball. Look for him to bounce back from his 1-for-5 three-point shooting performance in the first play-in game against a Heat team that ranked 17th in three-point attempts allowed and 14th in opponents’ three-point percentage during the regular season.
Tyler Herro to Record 4+ Made Three-Pointers (+135)
Perhaps the biggest statement made by any player in the opening play-in matchups was by Tyler Herro. The All-Star guard looked like the best player on the floor right from the opening tip, finishing with 38 points, five rebounds, and four assists. He easily would have poured on more if the game had required it, but the Heat kept the Bulls at arm’s length after building up as large as a 25-point lead.
Following the mid-season Jimmy Butler trade saga, Tyler Herro was thrust into the center stage as the face of the franchise and overall impressed. He finished the season averaging a career-high 23.9 points, 5.5 assists, and 5.2 rebounds per game. He also shot a career-high 8.7 three-point attempts while connecting at a 37.5% rate. Over the final 10 games of the season, he shot 50.1% from the perimeter. He connected on four or more three-pointers in 32 games this season, including four of the final nine games of the year.
When looking at this Hawks team, defense leaps to the front as the biggest concern. Across the regular season, they ranked 27th in opponents’ points allowed, 28th in opponents’ field goal percentage, and 28th in opponents’ three-point percentage. Opposing starting point guards have attempted 7.6 three-point attempts per game against the Hawks this year when they are playing at home- the worst rate in the league. Atlanta has also played at the fastest pace in the league at home this season, which should make for increased offensive opportunities. Expect Herro to lead the offensive attack for the Heat again tonight and take advantage of Atlanta’s weakness on the perimeter. Getting +135 value for the star guard to connect with four or more three-pointers is great value, and count on him to do everything possible to earn a true playoff opportunity with a victory.
Zach Edey Under 12.5 Rebounds (-110)
It is not coincidental that Zach Edey’s level of opportunity has expanded following the firing of Taylor Jenkins, and the rookie has delivered in these increased opportunities. On the season overall, the Purdue product has averaged 9.2 points and 8.3 rebounds per game in his 21.5 minutes of action. Edey has been especially impressive of late, pulling in 13 or more rebounds in six of his last seven games, including 17 rebounds against the Warriors.
Unfortunately, this is about as bad of a matchup as you could ask for from Edey’s perspective. The 7-foot-4 big man will square off with Anthony Davis, Daniel Gafford, and Dereck Lively II, with the Mavericks making their commitment to strong interior defense clear. Dallas will have their focus set on commanding the boards, which is much different stylistically than what Memphis saw in the first matchup with the Warriors. Even with his strong finish to the season, Edey has only tallied over 12.5 rebounds in nine of the 66 games he has played this season.
This feels like a situation in which the prop line has overcorrected a bit too much, especially considering the matchup. Dallas has plenty of physical bodies they will be able to throw at the rookie to make life difficult. Edey averaged 0.37 rebounds per minute until April, when he produced .51 rebounds per minute to close the season. The reality is likely somewhere in the middle here, but based on the matchup, this feels far too high a number. Count on Edey being active across this game but ultimately being held to under 12.5 rebounds for the 58th time this year.
Klay Thompson Over 14.5 Points (+100)
It is tough not to have a bit of sympathy for Klay Thompson. The four-time NBA champion left the Golden State Warriors this offseason to join last year’s Western Conference Champions and play next to Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. The roster looks vastly different from when he first signed on with the Mavericks organization, continuing to dig the hole deeper and deeper the more they spoke. To his credit, Thompson kept his focus on performing and mostly delivered for Dallas this season. He finished the regular season averaging 14.0 points, 3.4 rebounds, and 2.0 assists while shooting 39.1% from beyond the three-point arc on 7.7 perimeter shots per game.
Thompson set the tone for this Mavericks team during the opening play-in game, scoring 23 points and shooting 5-for-7 from beyond the three-point arc. He will now face off with a Memphis Grizzlies team that ranks 25th in opponents’ three-point percentage and 24th in opponents’ points allowed. As a team, the Mavericks rank as the third-most efficient shooting team while on the road this season, with the fan base’s unhappiness likely to have a bit of impact on the relief of playing on the road. This will continue to be the case tonight with the game taking place in Memphis, and the Grizzlies play at the quickest pace of any team in the league this season, which should make for additional offensive opportunities.
Thompson has proven to still have some gas left in the tank, and these are the type of moments he was brought in for. His offensive responsibility has further grown following the injury to Kyrie Irving, and Thompson has tallied over 14.5 points in 33 games this season. Expect some defensive issues to show face for this Grizzlies team and for him to score 15+ points as he attempts to earn the 10th playoff appearance of his career.
