Best of luck to our Chicago Cubs and Arizona Diamondbacks this afternoon; we’ll shift our eyes to the games on the diamond to be played under the lights. Plenty of marquee games to tickle your fancy on Friday night: Yankees vs. Rays, Astros vs. Padres, Rockies vs. Nationals, Mets vs. Cardinals. The list goes on. Below are my three favorite baseball bets today based on my game predictions and previews.
Links to DraftKings Sportsbook provided for all bets below!
Cole Ragans to record a win (+145) at Detroit Tigers
Ragans owners in season-long can wave a hearty hello to some early-days ROI. Ragans’ first two starts weren’t befit of his consensus top-five starting pitcher ranking for the 2025 season, but his last three sure have been: how’s cresting the ten strikeout threshold thrice in his last three games sound to you?
The Royals are officially letting Ragans go deep into his bag, both in terms of stuff and count. His pitch count has increased each game, and he’s pitched six innings and 7.2 innings, respectively, in his last two starts. Given that Jackson Jobe struggles to miss bats (only nine strikeouts on the year) and the Royals have one of the better bat-to-ball lineups in the AL, the pitching advantage swings wildly to Ragans, here.
I don’t see the Tigers, especially without Kerry Carpenter in the lineup against Ragans, jumping on the Royals quick enough such that Cole can’t get into a rhythm and eat innings while he allows his scrappy lineup to wear Jobe down with good contact.
Jackson Jobe 2+ walks allowed (+125) vs. Kansas City Royals
Let’s keep it in the same game but head to the other side of the mound. 22-year-old flamethrower Jobe has been a stud at keeping his stuff in the strike zone recently—he threw 54 of his 87 pitches for strikes in his first major-league win against the Twins last week. Even though he only allowed one walk there, he’s still allowed eight free passes through three starts thus far.
The Royals rank 29th in the MLB in OBP (.277), so it’s not like they’re working the zone with any sort of savviness just yet. They’re a contact team, as I said. But six of their nine projected starters tonight have five-or-more walks. That’s enough for me to take the plus-money here. Especially considering this lineup knows their ace is on the mound.
So, indeed, they’ll be going for hard contact and will get a top-of-the-rotation win, but it won’t be without forcing Jobe into at least two walks.
Colorado Rockies (+115) vs. Washington Nationals
It’s Chase Dollander vs. Mackenzie Gore tonight in Denver. And while Gore is in the middle of a bit of a bounceback season, he’s sporting an ugly 1.83 WHIP over his last two starts. Sure, he went six innings in both, and struck out seven in both. He’s got a 32:6 BB/K, and that seems to be supported by the metrics. But the Rockies are happy to whiff away until they make hard contact and eventually hang a grand slam on the other team, just like Michael Toglia did the other night.
I like the home field advantage here, and I liked what I saw out of Dollander’s last start. It’s not like this is a Nationals offense that’s really rounded into form yet.
In the battle of question-mark pitchers, give me the shiny new thing to lead his team to a win tonight. And maybe Michael Toglia will be back with some fireworks at home, this time. Rather than, you know, that 40+% strikeout rate he’s currently got at Coors.
