The final matchup of the NBA Play-in Tournament will be between the Memphis Grizzlies and Dallas Mavericks. It has been a hectic season for both franchises, headlined by coaching changes and the trade of Luka Doncic. But each team will fight to earn a chance at the postseason, with Jaren Jackson Jr. and company looking to get back in the playoffs after missing outright last year.
The winner of this game will prepare for a first-round matchup with the Oklahoma City Thunder, while the losing team will immediately enter the offseason.
The Grizzlies enter as six-point favorites and -270 on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Mavericks hold +220 odds on the moneyline with the game total set at 222 points.
Amid the firing of Taylor Jenkins and the drama surrounding Ja Morant, it has been a really solid season for Jaren Jackson Jr. The two-time All-Star averaged 22.2 points, 5.6 rebounds and 1.5 blocks per game this year. Especially with Morant battling an ankle injury, Memphis will need a strong performance from the Michigan State product if it expects to get the victory.
With the stage set, here are my favorite Jackson Jr. prop bets ahead of this final Western Conference Play-In matchup.
Best Jaren Jackson Jr. Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Jackson Jr’s props are listed at over/under 21.5 points, 5.5 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 2.5 made three-pointers and 29.5 combined points, rebounds and assists.
Jaren Jackson Jr. Under 5.5 Rebounds (+100)
While he is not short on talent or size, the biggest flaw in Jackson Jr.’s game is his rebounding ability. The 6-foot-10 forward averaged 5.6 rebounds per game this season and has never averaged more than 6.8 in a season. He was held to under 5.5 rebounds in 36 of the 74 games he has played this year.
This is especially concerning in this matchup with the Mavericks. Dallas has dug its heels in on becoming a tough, defensive-minded team that controls the rebounding battle. Anthony Davis headlines the action with players like Daniel Gafford, Dereck Lively II and P.J. Washington also imposing themselves. Each of these players is averaging 6.8 rebounds per game or greater on the season.
That being said, it is difficult to judge metrics on their defensive and rebounding numbers due to the small sample size. The play-in tournament marked just the 10th game that Davis has suited up for his new team. This will be Jackson Jr.’s first time facing off with the new-look unit that possesses the exact skillset he struggles so much against.
Zach Edey has been elevated to the primary rebounding option on this Grizzlies roster, but both players should be in for a rude awakening in this game. Count on the Mavericks to impose themselves on this side of the floor and for both Edey and Jackson Jr. to be bothered by the Mavericks’ physicality. Count on Jackson Jr. to be limited to less than 5.5 rebounds again tonight and capitalize on the +100 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Jaren Jackson Jr. to Record 2+ Blocks (+115)
There was a point where Jackson Jr. was labeled as the clear-cut best shot-blocker in the NBA. The 2022-23 Defensive Player of the Year led the league in blocks twice, tallying as many as 3.0 blocks per game in a season. He has never averaged less than 1.4 blocks per game in a season and has averaged 1.9 per game throughout his career.
This has changed since Edey’s arrival. The rookie averaged 1.3 blocks per game, changing the complexion of Memphis’ defense. The elite shot-blocking version of Jackson Jr. still exists in there, but the volume is sometimes less with Edey around. Nonetheless, this is a matchup he should be expected to be called upon in. Even in a down season by these metrics, the 25-year-old tallied two or more blocks in 35 games this year.
He has yet to face this iteration of the Mavericks, but Dallas has become much more dependent on its interior production on offense. Across the first 22 games of the season, when Luka Doncic was healthy, the Mavericks attempted 27.5 field goal attempts from inside five feet of the basket and 53.5 field goal attempts per game from the mid-range or closer. Since Anthony Davis has stepped on the floor, the Mavericks are averaging 29.4 field goal attempts from inside five feet and 56.2 from the mid-range or closer.
The Mavericks personnel will allow Jackson Jr. to patrol the paint and remain landlocked near the restricted area. Expect him to benefit from the number of shots inside and send at least two back tonight. Take advantage of the +115 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook and expect Jackson Jr. to be the guy to match the Mavericks’ interior attack.
