The 2025 NBA Play-In Tournament comes to a close on Friday with a Southeast Division showdown. The 37-45 Heat will travel to Atlanta for a battle with the 40-42 Hawks. For the winner, a series with the top-seeded Cavaliers awaits. Tonight’s loser will have their season come to an end.
The Heat enter this contest as one-point favorites over the Hawks, with the over/under set at 220.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Betting Splits
Despite winning three fewer games this season, bettors are clearly favoring the Heat over the Hawks. After trading Jimmy Butler, Miami has been in decline; the Heat have gone 14-22 since February 1st. Still, Wednesday’s 109-90 win over the Bulls has the team coming into tonight’s game with some momentum. 71% of the handle and 74% of all bets are expecting a Heat victory on Friday.
The story is the same in regards to the spread, which makes sense with both sides separated by one point. 71% of the handle and 73% of all bets are backing the Heat. These squads split four games between each other this season, with Miami winning the last two meetings.
Most Popular Player Props
Here are the five player props in tonight’s matchup receiving the most bets:
- Mouhamed Gueye under 6.5 points (-125)
- Bam Adebayo first dunk scorer (+295)
- Davion Mitchell over 16.5 points + assists (-140)
- Bam Adebayo first points scorer (+475)
- Tyler Herro first points scorer (+550)
The most popular prop on the board is somewhat surprising. When thinking about the Hawks and the Heat, Mouhamed Gueye isn’t the first name that comes to mind. Without Clint Capela (hand) and Jalen Johnson (shoulder), Atlanta has had to get creative in its front court. That’s led to more minutes for Gueye, a second-year pro out of Washington State. Over his last ten appearances, the big man has averaged 7.0 points and 6.5 rebounds for the Hawks. However, his workload has fluctuated from 33 minutes to seven during that time.
If the post-Butler Heat have a face of the franchise, it’s Bam Adebayo. The three-time All-Star didn’t have his best season, shooting a career-worst 48.5% from the field. Still, the center remains a double-double threat on any given night. Bettors are expecting the 27-year-old to come out of the gates hot, backing him as a first dunk and first points scorer.
Tyler Herro enjoyed a breakout 2024-25 campaign, earning his first career All-Star Game selection. The guard led the Heat with 23.9 points per game while shooting 47.2% from the field. Together, Herro and Adebayo accounted for just under 38% of Miami’s scoring this season. The Heat should give their best offensive weapon every opportunity to make an impact early.
