The NBA Play-In Tournament will conclude Friday night with the Grizzlies hosting the Mavericks. The winner of this contest will face the Thunder in the first-round of the Western Conference playoffs, while the loser’s season will be over.
Below, I break down Friday’s tilt between the Grizzlies and Mavericks, and give a pick for the game via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Grizzlies vs. Mavericks preview, prediction
The Grizzlies nearly upset the Warriors in Golden State on Tuesday, but after losing that game, Memphis now finds itself hosting the Mavericks for a win-or-go home Play-In matchup. As for the Mavericks, they went into Sacramento on Wednesday and easily upset the Kings on their home floor, earning Dallas a shot in this do-or-die matchup with the Grizzlies. The Mavericks won that game vs. Sacramento by 16 points and they led for the majority of the contest.
While both the Grizzlies and Mavericks have had their struggles in the second half of the season, Memphis has been slightly better since the All-Star break, with a 12-17 record and ranking 17th in net rating, while Dallas is 10-17 and ranks 21st in net rating. That said, Anthony Davis only played in 10 of those 27 games for the Mavericks, but is now at full strength and, with the big man in the lineup, Dallas is 7-3 this season. Davis finished with 27 points, nine rebounds and three blocks in Wednesday’s upset over the Kings and having the former NBA champion healthy is a massive deal for Dallas.
As for the Grizzlies, they do have the homecourt advantage and an extra day of rest in their favor, but the team hasn’t exactly been a model of success since surprisingly firing Taylor Jenkins a few weeks ago. Since firing the coach, Memphis is 4-6 and two of these six losses came by double-digits.
The Grizzlies and Mavericks faced each other four times in the regular season and Memphis went 3-1 in those matchups with 20.3-point average margin of victory. However, one of these games was the meaningless regular season finale, in which both teams sat most of their key players. Additionally, Davis wasn’t available for Dallas for any of these four matchups with the Grizzlies. So, these regular season results aren’t very relevant heading into Friday’s Play-In matchup.
Grizzlies vs. Mavericks pick, best bet
As explained above, the Mavericks are a totally different team with Davis in uniform and the Grizzlies’ struggles since firing Jenkins are very real. This will only be interim HC Tuomas Iisalo’s 11th game calling the shots for Memphis, while the Mavericks have Jason Kidd at the helm, who coached Dallas to the NBA Finals last season. Kidd should come into this matchup with a strong game plan and certainly win the coaching battle.
While Ja Morant looks revitalized since Jenkins’ firing, it’s hard to believe in the Grizzlies as a team right now and at a +220 moneyline price on DraftKings Sportsbook, backing the Mavericks for the upset over Memphis is the right call. If attacking Dallas on the moneyline is too bold for you, they are a 6.5-point underdog on DraftKings Sportsbook and an elite bet to cover.
