There are four NBA games on Saturday’s slate.
As for injuries, Ariel Hukporti is questionable.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, IND is -5.5 over MIL at home with the total at 224. DEN is -2.5 over LAC at home with the total at 223.5. NYK is -7 over DET at home with the total at 220. LAL is -4 over MIN at home with the total at 216.
Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA $300K Shootaround [$100K to 1st]
Guard
Stud
Luka Doncic, Los Angeles Lakers vs. Minnesota Timberwolves ($10,800): For a while, I was fading Doncic from a fantasy perspective because the Lakers offense was more egalitarian than I expected. LeBron James will always be an offensive factor whenever he’s on the court, but Austin Reaves was stepping up and producing. This is not to say that Doncic was bad, but the usage rate was in the high-20% range and the fantasy output was languishing in the 50 FPTS area. Good but not HalleLuka-esque, especially when factoring in the price. Well, in the last two regular season games he played, Doncic had a usage rate of at least 40 percent in both and put up 62 and 74 FPTS. Doncic has been a member of the Lakers for 28 games and it’s now winning time, so I think the roles have been established, chemistry has been built and we are going to continue seeing the high-usage rate version of Doncic the rest of the way. The floor/ceiling combo is matched by only Giannis and Jokic on this slate.
Other Options: Cade Cunningham ($9,400), James Harden ($9,000), Jalen Brunson ($8,500), Austin Reaves ($7,200)
Value
Kris Dunn, Los Angeles Clippers at Denver Nuggets ($3,500): Dunn is a low-usage player who won’t contribute much in the scoring department, so there is some risk that he gets played off the court if he can’t convert his open looks. Dunn is shooting 33% from downtown on the season. That said, Dunn has started the last 29 games for Los Angeles primarily due to his defense. He’s averaged 2.0 steals over that span while dishing out 3.0 assists. Most importantly, he’s converted 38% of his looks from beyond the arc. He will likely end up in the teens for FPTS, but he has gone over 20 FPTS in 14 of those starts, with five of those over 30 and a high of 42.75 FPTS.
Other Options: Norman Powell ($6,000), Christian Braun ($5,600), Malik Beasley ($5,100), Bennedict Mathurin ($4,800), Gary Trent Jr. ($3,900), Nickeil Alexander-Walker ($3,600)
Forward
Stud
Kawhi Leonard, Los Angeles Clippers at Denver Nuggets ($8,400): I do like Giannis a lot, but if spending up, I’d rather go with Doncic or Jokic, especially since Kawhi is priced where he is. Kawhi doesn’t garner a massive usage rate — usually around 28 percent — but he’s so efficient and contributes across the board that the end result is magnifique. Over the last four games, he’s put up at least 44 FPTS in all with 56.5 FPTS against the Warriors in the regular season finale. The most important numbers are the 47 and 42 minutes he played in the two most recent games.
Other Options: Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,200), Josh Hart ($7,400), Julius Randle ($7,100), Pascal Siakam ($7,000), OG Anunoby ($6,900), Aaron Gordon ($6,100)
Value
Aaron Nesmith, Indiana Pacers vs. Milwaukee Bucks ($4,100): Since returning from a 35-game absence, Nesmith has played in 39 games. It took around 10 games to get back into the starting lineup and another five games to receive 30 minutes. Since then, the playing time has oscillated from 20 to 30 minutes, but I feel confident that he plays at least 30 minutes a night the rest of the way. He’s shooting 43% from downtown while his energy and defensive versatility make him so valuable. Nesmith will likely end up in the teens for FPTS, but he has gone over 30 FPTS in three of the last seven games played.
Other Options: Norman Powell ($6,000), Christian Braun ($5,600), Ausar Thompson ($5,500), Malik Beasley ($5,100), Naz Reid ($5,100), Bobby Portis ($5,000), Bennedict Mathurin ($4,800), Dorian Finney-Smith ($4,200), Gary Trent Jr. ($3,900), Nickeil Alexander-Walker ($3,600)
Center
Stud
Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets vs. Los Angeles Clippers ($11,800): There really isn’t much to write about Jokic. He’s awesome. He’s amazing. He’s the greatest fantasy player of our generation. He’s a threat to triple-double on any given night and probably has the highest floor/ceiling combo on the slate. Jokic has put up over 80 FPTS 14 times this season, with six of those over 90 and a high of 100.25 FPTS. L. O. L. Is it a guarantee that he puts up the highest score on the slate? No, but the probabilities are highest.
Other Options: Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,200), Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,500), Julius Randle ($7,100), Jalen Duren ($6,600), Myles Turner ($6,100)
Value
Mitchell Robinson, New York Knicks vs. Detroit Pistons ($3,800): Mr. Robinson’s neighborhood hasn’t always been the most fun to saunter down, as injuries have littered the streets with bandages and DNPs. He’s healthy now, though, or at least it looks like it. He played 33 minutes in the last game against Cleveland. Now, the range of outcomes is wide here, as he will more than likely play minutes in the teens, but there’s a chance Thibs goes with a double-big lineup more in this one. If so, that obviously increases the likelihood of fantasy goodies from Robinson. That said, even if he plays minutes on the low side, Mr. Robinson could still be a factor due to his defensive prowess and ability to clean the glass. On the season, he’s averaging 1.01 FPTS per minute and put up 38.5 FPTS in only 21 minutes four games ago.
Other Options: Naz Reid ($5,100), Bobby Portis ($5,000), Dorian Finney-Smith ($4,200)
