There are 11 MLB games on the main slate for Saturday, with the first starting at 1:05 p.m. ET. Here are three value picks for the slate. This article is written before the actual lineups come out, so keep track of updates throughout the day.
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SP Casey Mize, Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals, $7,200
Mize hasn’t been a robust strikeout pitcher so far in his MLB career, posting a K/9 over seven only once. The fastball velocity has increased, though, starting at 93.8 mph during his rookie season to 94.9 mph through three starts this season. The K/9 is 7.79 and the 3.8 FIP is a career-low. And the trend is a friendly one, as it was 6.47 during his rookie season and has decreased every year. Last season’s 3.95 FIP was the first time under four.
While Mize has had some good luck this season with a .222 BABIP, he’s been good at keeping the ball in the yard over the last three seasons. In 17.1 innings this season, Mize has allowed two home runs, both coming in the most recent start in Minnesota.
Prior to that start, Mize went six and 5.2 innings and finished with 23.3 and 26.4 FPTS against the Yankees and Mariners.
The matchup Saturday is a good one, as Kansas City has been one of the most inept offenses in MLB. The Royals are 29th in wOBA and dead-last in ISO, the only team under .100.
1B Rowdy Tellez, Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jays, $2,000
This is the second time I’ve recommended Tellez this season, and I will keep going to the well when he’s minimum priced and facing a RHP that allows home runs.
Tellez was ice cold to start the season, hitting only one home run through 13 games. On Friday, he hit his second. Is this the start of a Rowdy heater? He’s gone on those benders before.
Saturday’s matchup is against Jose Berrios, who has allowed five home runs in 22.2 innings so far this season. The swinging strike rate is only 9.2%, and in his career, the HR/9 is 1.45 against lefties, compared to 1.04 against righties. The FIP is 4.61 vs. 3.69 against righties.
1B/2B Colt Keith, Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals, $2,900
Keith has had a brutal start to the season, slashing .185/.343/.222 with a .037 ISO. The walk rate is 19.4% while the strikeout rate is 23.9%. He’s been a little unlucky with a .263 BABIP, but the hard hit rate is way down at 23.7%, while the average exit velocity is a paltry 80.9 mph.
He’s going to heat up at some point. Last season, the average exit velocity was 87.9 mph and he slashed .260/.309/.380 with a .120 ISO. He’s no Aaron Judge, but he did hit 13 home runs and stole seven bases in 556 plate appearances.
Saturday offers a chance to get right, as Seth Lugo has also struggled to start the season. Lugo has allowed five home runs in 23.1 innings with a 5.7 FIP and 6.17 K/9. The fastball is only averaging 92.5 mph and the swinging strike rate is 7.1%.
