If the Memphis Grizzlies lose tonight to the Dallas Mavericks in a do-or-die Play-In Tournament contest, Grizzlies fans will surely rue the play that occurred with four minutes, 25 seconds remaining in the third quarter of Memphis’ 121-116 loss in the 7-8 matchup against the Golden State Warriors, when Ja Morant landed on Buddy Hield’s foot after making a short jumper and turned his ankle. He wouldn’t return until nine minutes, 26 seconds remained in the game, and despite scoring four points, dishing out an assist, and recording a steal after his return, he looked hobbled.
Morant missed practice yesterday and is officially questionable for tonight’s contest, but given the stakes, it seems likely that he’ll play. Since the start of February, Morant has regained some of his superstar form, averaging 26.8 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 7.0 assists per game. He’s also posted the league’s fifth-highest usage rate across that span.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, Memphis is a six-point favorite and the total is set for 222. Below, I’ve detailed my favorite prop bets centered around Morant.
Best Ja Morant Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Ja Morant O2.5 Three-Pointers Made (+150)
Morant does most of his damage as a slasher; he ranked fifth in the league in drives per game during the regular season and posted roughly average efficiency among the 55 players who recorded at least 10 times per contest. His three-point shot has never been the primary weapon in his arsenal, and he’s never recorded above-average three-point efficiency in his career. In his 50 regular-season games, he only canned three or more triples 13 times, but he did do so in four of his last five outings of the regular season.
He only attempted three triples against Golden State, making one, but that sort of makes sense — the Warriors are relatively undersized and only have one fearsome rim protector in Draymond Green, who operates more as a roving free safety than an anchor in the paint. Dallas, on the other hand, has two on the court at all times, between Anthony Davis, Dereck Lively II, and Daniel Gafford. The Mavericks’ interior defensive metrics have been excellent with Davis and Lively on the floor together, but they’ve still allowed opponents to attempt more threes than them, albeit in a tiny sample size. Overall, since Lively’s return from injury, Dallas has also conceded an above-average three-point percentage.
In the final two minutes of Tuesday’s game, Morant didn’t drive to the basket once and spent most of his time on offense hovering near the three-point line. Driving would require him to constantly start, stop, and change direction, repeatedly testing his injured ankle, and the more he jumps off of it, the more likely he is to land on the massive feet of the Mavericks’ supersized starting lineup. Protecting his ankle for a first-round series against Oklahoma City will be a factor even if the priority is getting the win tonight, and shooting threes will be a lot less physically demanding.
Ja Morant U3.5 Rebounds (+124)
This bet’s a corollary to the first one; if Morant spends more time on offense further away from the basket than usual, he’ll have fewer opportunities to grab rebounds. Dallas has been relatively strong on the boards with its double-big look, allowing 42.8 rebounds per game in the five contests that Davis and Lively have played together, a figure that would’ve been the eighth-stingiest in the NBA over the course of the season. Those games also came against fairly stout rebounding teams; the LA Clippers, Los Angeles Lakers, Sacramento Kings, and Atlanta Hawks all ranked in the league’s top half in rebounds allowed.
Plus, since the start of April, rookie center Zach Edey’s minutes have increased significantly. Including the Play-In Tournament, Edey has played 25 or more minutes 19 times this season, including every game in April. Morant played alongside him in 12 of those 19 games, and in seven of them — including Tuesday’s loss — he grabbed three or fewer boards. Especially given the size of the Mavericks’ lineup, it’s fair to assume that Edey will play at least 30 minutes in tonight’s game, unless he gets himself in foul trouble.
