There’s a realistic chance for a Premier League team to win the biggest prize in European football, but it won’t be the champions of the English domestic division. Arsenal sits second in the table, and its chances at winning the Premier League are slim, but the Gunners are within 270 minutes of claiming their first-ever UCL title.
There might not be much to be decided in England — Liverpool will win the title, and Southampton, Leicester City, and Ipswich Town will go down — but at least there are plenty of bets to be made at DraftKings Sportsbook. Here are my top betting picks for Matchweek 33.
First, let’s take a look at the full list of fixtures:
Brighton & Hove Albion at Brentford, 10 a.m. ET, April 19
AFC Bournemouth at Crystal Palace, 10 a.m. ET, April 19
Manchester City at Everton, 10 a.m. ET, April 19
Southampton at West Ham United, 10 a.m. ET, April 19
Newcastle United at Aston Villa, 12:30 p.m. ET, April 19
Chelsea at Fulham, 9 a.m. ET, April 20
Arsenal at Ipswich Town, 9 a.m. ET, April 20
Wolves at Manchester United, 9 a.m. ET, April 20
Liverpool at Leicester City, 11:30 a.m. ET, April 20
Nottingham Forest at Tottenham Hotspur, 3 p.m. ET, April 21
Brighton Moneyline (+170)
Brighton is cold in general, and the Seagulls narrowly ruined the bet I suggested last week that they’d be leading Leicester through 30 minutes by scoring in the 31st. In Brighton’s last five matches in all competitions, it’s lost twice and drawn thrice, one of the draws resulting in its elimination on penalties in the quarterfinals of the FA Cup. The five points that the Seagulls have taken from their last five Premier League matches mark the eighth-worst form in the division. They’re still six points out of seventh place, which would likely give them a spot in a European competition next season, but Bournemouth has a far better goal difference.
Over the first half of the Premier League season, Brentford was one of the league’s hottest teams at home, winning seven of their first eight league matches at Gtech Community Stadium, but its schedule has gotten more difficult and it has taken just three points (all draws) from its last eight home fixtures. On the flip side, the Bees won five consecutive away matches before losing narrowly to Newcastle in a game in which they generated the better chances and managed an impressive 1-1 draw against Arsenal.
These teams drew 0-0 at the AmEx Stadium the last time they faced off in the Premier League, and though they’re fairly evenly matched overall, with the Seagulls sitting one place and five points ahead, the underlying stats favor Brighton slightly. The Seagulls have the ninth-best expected goal difference in the league, while Brentford sits eighth from the bottom. The Bees’ easy fixtures in the first half of the season overstated their true home field advantage, and a Matchweek 15 home win over Newcastle aside, they haven’t beaten anyone particularly good this season. Give me Brighton, which has beaten the Magpies twice on the road, as well as Manchester United, and drawn to Villa and Arsenal.
Omar Marmoush 3+ Shots on Target (+475)
In Mohamed Salah, who’s going to be both the division’s top scorer and its top assister, Liverpool has the Premier League’s best Egyptian. But the second-best player from the North African country is definitely Marmoush, who might be the second-best pure finisher in the top flight, too. City has hardly missed a beat since losing striker Erling Haaland to a serious ankle injury in the FA Cup quarterfinal against Bournemouth on March 30, taking seven points from its three Premier League matches, including a 5-2 win over Crystal Palace. Marmoush has scored in two of the three matches and recorded three or more shots on target in all three. He also notched two shots on target in just 30 minutes in relief of Haaland in the cup match.
The odds are high because Everton’s defense has actually been pretty good this season. The Toffees have allowed the eighth-fewest shots on target, fifth-lowest shot-on-target percentage, and seventh-lowest non-penalty expected goals per shot figure. They haven’t allowed more than five shots on target in any of their last six matches, including three or fewer in four of them, and it’s not like Marmoush accounts for all of the Cityzen’s shots on goal.
The odds for Marmoush to fire two shots on target are a more reasonable +145, and I think that’s the safer bet, but the odds are too friendly to ignore. He’s played in nine Premier League matches with City and recorded three or more shots on target in four of them, so statistically, his odds of doing so against Everton should be +125. In the five matches he didn’t, he played in a midfield or winger role alongside Haaland, and in two of the three matches since Haaland’s injury, he’s played in the striker role.
Southampton-West Ham United Draw (+360)
The already-relegated Saints need one point to avoid tying Derby County’s record for futility in a Premier League season and two points to leave the Rams in solo last. Here’s their remaining schedule for the rest of the season: West Ham, Fulham, Leicester, Manchester City, Everton, and Arsenal. The games against the easier teams are all away, with home clashes against the defending champions and the second-placed Gunners. None of the games, not even Leicester, are a guaranteed point for Southampton, and I certainly don’t see them getting three anywhere.
But in 2007-08, Derby had a -69 goal difference, or an average of 1.82 goals per match. Right now, the Saints have lost by 54 total goals across 32 matches, or 1.69 goals per match. Southampton isn’t as awful as that Rams team was, and it isn’t even as awful as its own score lines suggest; by expected goal difference, the Saints should’ve been outscored by a slightly more respectable 44.5 goals to this point in the season. There are two realistic chances for Southampton to pick up a point: tomorrow’s match against the Hammers and the road game against the Foxes.
Losing seven of its last eight Premier League matches by a combined score of 22-5 doesn’t exactly inspire confidence, but it’s not like West Ham’s form is much better. The Hammers have lost three of their last five domestic fixtures, drawing to Bournemouth and Everton and losing to Newcastle, Wolves, and Liverpool. Sure, the competition has been stiffer and the games have been tighter. But West Ham is safe from relegation and out of contention for Europe, so if there’s ever a time for it to underestimate its opponent, it’s tomorrow.
Matheus Cunha Anytime Goalscorer (+175)
Wolves’ leading man — and his team — is in quite the run of form. Just a few weeks ago, there was still a chance that Wolves would’ve faced the drop after seven seasons in the top flight, but they’ve won four straight matches, the second-longest active winning streak in the division, behind only Newcastle’s five-match run.
Cunha missed three of the four wins after a boneheaded decision in the team’s FA Cup fifth-round tie against Bournemouth, in which he picked up a straight red card in the 119th minute, suspending him for three matches. But he netted for Brazil in a 4-1 loss to Argentina during the international break, returned to Wolverhampton, and managed to score in just 22 minutes of action off the bench in a 4-2 win over Tottenham. All in all, Cunha has found the strings in seven of his nine matches in all competitions for club and country since the start of February.
United, meanwhile, is probably in an emotional daze after Thursday night’s epic Europa League quarterfinal second-round tie against Lyon. The Red Devils scored three goals in the final seven minutes of the match to advance, with defender Harry Maguire’s header in the 121st minute sealing the deal and securing United a semifinal berth against Athletic Club Bilbao. Less than 72 hours after such an emotional affair, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Ruben Amorim rotate his battered squad. Either way, the Red Devils defense has been through a rough spell, conceding four goals in each of their last two matches.
Matz Sels 4+ Saves (+120)
Incredibly, Nottingham Forest has an expected goal difference of negative-1.0, just the 12th-highest in the Premier League and nowhere near the caliber one might expect from a team fighting for a Champions League place in 2025-26. But the Foresters’ actual goal difference is plus-13, because Belgian veteran Matz Sels has been that good. He leads the Premier League in clean sheets and ranks second in total saves and fifth in save percentage. It’s a far cry from last season, when the combination of Sels, American shot-stopper Matt Turner, and Odisseas Vlachodimos combined for a paltry 61.3% save percentage.
Forest’s impeccable form is starting to slip slightly, as it has dropped from third to fourth in the table. But that’s had nothing to do with Sels, who has recorded four or more saves in each match. He was perfect against five shots on target from Manchester United, stopped six of eight against Villa in a 2-1 defeat, and saved four of five against Everton last weekend. In each case, he conceded fewer goals than the post-shot expected goals figure that each chance produced.
He’ll probably be tested this weekend once again against a Spurs team that has had no trouble scoring but hasn’t been able to keep the ball out of the back of their net. For all of its struggles this season — it sits 15th in the table, which would be its worst Premier League finish ever — Tottenham has managed the fifth-most shots on target and the third-highest shot-on-target percentage. Spurs have also scored the fourth-most goals and have fired five or more shots on target in all 19 of their 32 top-flight matches this season. Sels recorded four saves in the teams’ first meeting in Matchweek 20, keeping a clean sheet.
