The St. Louis Cardinals roll into Citi Field tonight, looking to defy the odds against a Mets squad that’s struggled to find their rhythm. With Andre Pallante on the mound—still undefeated in 2025 and boasting an eye-popping 2.20 ERA—the Cardinals come in with momentum and a fierce offensive edge. Meanwhile, Griffin Canning takes the hill for New York, but with a 4.20 ERA and a propensity for getting tagged early, it’s hard to see him outlasting the firepower St. Louis brings. Below, I’ve got my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Thursday night baseball game between the Mets and the Cardinals.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Mets vs. Cardinals prediction, preview
The St. Louis Cardinals may be entering Citi Field as the underdogs tonight, but they’re a live dog with clear value. The Mets are priced around -140, but when you dig into the numbers, there’s no reason they should be such heavy favorites here. Griffin Canning has been a gas can on the mound for the Mets—his 4.20 ERA this season masks underlying struggles. Opponents are slugging .537 against him when they face him for the first time in a game, and he’s allowing a dismal .561 slugging percentage when facing the lineup for the first time. That doesn’t bode well against a potent Cardinals offense that’s batting .280 this season, the best in MLB, and ranks 3rd in OPS.
On the flip side, Andre Pallante is more than holding his own for St. Louis. His 2.20 ERA is stellar, and while his advanced stats suggest some regression is on the horizon, he’s been rolling in 2025—coming off seven shutout innings against the Phillies. Against a Mets lineup that’s striking out at an alarmingly high clip, Pallante could very well be the steadying force on the mound.
Player-wise, you’re looking at standout performances from Brendan Donovan, who’s batting .380 and has been hitting consistently in road games. The Mets, meanwhile, are struggling with inconsistency from key hitters like Juan Soto and Francisco Lindor. They’re also sitting at a mediocre .219 as a team—far from the kind of offensive juggernaut you’d expect at -140 odds.
Cardinals vs. Mets pick, best bet
To cap it off, the Mets have been underwhelming in spots where they should be clicking, and the Cardinals have been strong as road underdogs in 2025, winning 4 of their last 7 in that spot. The Mets also come off back-to-back losses, while the Cardinals are riding a series win over the Astros.
This is a prime spot for the Cardinals to pull off the upset. Take them on the Moneyline at +118 and lock in a strong value play for Thursday night.
Best bet: Cardinals (+115) at Mets
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