MLB takes center stage once again on the sports calendar for today, with the NBA taking a break in the SoFi Play-In Tournament. It’s the greatest time of the sporting year — the NBA’s and NHL playoffs are getting underway and the weather is getting better for a long summer of baseball and golf.
Today’s DFS slate on DraftKings is split into two — a four-game early slate with a $100,000 purse and a 6:35 p.m. ET slate with $150,000 in prizes. I’m just going to be focused on the late slate today.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $150K Bat Flip [$50K to 1st].
SP Reese Olson, Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals, $7,300
Olson has had one good start from the three times he’s taken the mound so far this season, although the two bad ones can be forgiven. In his first start of the season, he went 4.2 innings and gave up four runs (8.9 FPTS) in a loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers, which is fair because it’s Los Angeles. And in his most recent outing, he was cruising through four innings until a rough fifth chased him from the game. It’s his second start that makes me confident in him: six innings and two runs (17.5 FPTS) in a win over the Chicago White Sox. But he was an elite pitcher last season, and so far this season, by and large, he’s throwing his pitches faster and with more spin. His control hasn’t been quite as good, but some of his struggles can be chalked up to luck.
To be fair, his one good start came against the White Sox, who were the worst team in baseball last season and have the league’s second-worst record so far in 2025. Indeed, that Chicago team has the worst OPS so far this season, at just .579, and it brings up the rear in just about every important hitting category. But Kansas City is the second-worst team by OPS and the fourth-worst in the American League by record, ranking ahead of only the White Sox in several metrics and hitting fewer home runs than any team in the league. Even though Kauffman Stadium is one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the league, the Royals actually have the worst home OPS in baseball. Olson should put up another good start tonight.
OF Jesse Winker, New York Mets vs. St. Louis Cardinals, $3,000
This pick is assuming some regression towards the mean from both Winker and Cardinals starter Andre Pallante ($8,700), who has a very impressive 2.20 ERA this season. Normally, I wouldn’t be fading a 26-year-old pitcher, instead assuming that he’s at the age that every bit of demonstrated improvement is legitimate, but his FIP figure is 4.30, the second-highest of his career, and his average velocity is down on all of his pitches while his spin rates have been consistent. He was only a slightly above-average pitcher in 2024 and his fundamental metrics haven’t changed dramatically, all the way down to his performance by zone.
Winker, meanwhile, has been off to a rough start, slashing just .200/.256/.400 so far this season, but he did record two doubles, score a run, and drive in another (14 FPTS) in a 4-3 win last night against the Minnesota Twins, so maybe it’s a sign that he’s breaking out of his slump. He’s been solely used at designated hitter this season, but New York might also need him to play a bigger role in the future, given that outfielder Jose Siri ($2,800) will miss some time after fouling a ball off his shin on Saturday and breaking his left leg. If he notches a more consistent role for himself, Winker is capable of going on a hot streak, and historically, he’s loved to hit fastballs as much as Pallante loves throwing them.
2B/SS Jackson Holliday, Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians, $3,800
This is my second time this season backing Holliday, who’s yet to live up to the lofty potential that enticed the Orioles to select him with the first overall pick in 2022. The son of former All-Star left fielder Matt Holliday, Jackson Holliday has slashed just .216/.231/.392 this season, which actually represents an improvement over his 2024 statistics. He did hit his second grand slam of his career last night, a second-inning shot off of Gavin Williams that gave him his best fantasy output (20 FPTS) of the season. Whether that’s a sign of things to come or an indictment of Williams, who’s struggled to start this season, it’s certainly a positive for the 21-year-old.
Guardians starter Tanner Bibee ($7,900) sports a 4.40 ERA so far this season and has yet to complete the sixth inning in his three starts. Twice, he hasn’t even recorded 15 outs, including in his most recent outing, where he didn’t give up a run but walked four batters and exited the game after 4.2 innings (14.3 FPTS). He also blew up on April 5, giving up seven runs in just four innings of work (-3 FPTS). Bibee doesn’t allow a lot of hard hits, but Holliday ranks above the median in average exit velocity because he compensates for a lack of raw bat speed with an excellent square-up rate, and he rarely chases pitches outside the zone, where 48% of Bibee’s pitches have been thrown this season. He’s also been significantly better in his career against right-handed pitchers like Bibee.
