The Tigers host the Royals at Comerica Park in a pivotal AL Central clash, with both teams looking to find their footing after recent losses. Detroit’s strong home record and balanced lineup face off against Kansas City’s road struggles and an offense that’s been underwhelming. Reese Olson and Michael Lorenzen will take the mound, each aiming to put their teams back on track in a tightly contested series opener. Below, I’ve got my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Thursday night baseball game between the Tigers and the Royals.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Tigers vs. Royals prediction, preview
The Tigers come into tonight’s matchup at the top of the AL Central with a 10-8 record, and their home success has been a big part of that—boasting a 5-1 record at Comerica Park. Detroit’s offense is powered by Spencer Torkelson, who leads the team with six home runs and 13 RBIs, and Kerry Carpenter, who has shown pop with five home runs and a .571 slugging percentage. The Tigers’ offense overall ranks 10th in runs scored, averaging 4.5 per game. Against right-handed pitchers, they’ve been even more dangerous, sitting at eighth in MLB with a 117 wRC+, which boosts the value of their already dangerous lineup. This is important, especially considering Michael Lorenzen will be on the mound for Kansas City. Lorenzen, a veteran right-hander, holds a 3.71 ERA this season, but his 1.24 WHIP suggests there’s room for improvement. Lorenzen has allowed 10 earned runs in 17 innings, and while he’s posted a solid ERA, his elevated WHIP shows that opposing hitters have found ways to get on base.
On the flip side, the Royals are struggling to get anything going offensively. With a wRC+ of just 67, they are dead-last in MLB, ahead of only the Pirates and Rockies in that department. Their .206 team batting average is among the worst in the league, and they’ve managed only 58 runs so far this season. Bobby Witt Jr. continues to be a lone bright spot with a .310 batting average and a team-leading two home runs. Vinnie Pasquantino has shown some pop with two home runs, but as a team, the Royals rank last in home runs (10) and 28th in OPS. With the lineup struggling to produce, they’ll need to rely heavily on their pitching, particularly Lorenzen, to keep them in this one.
Reese Olson gets the ball for the Tigers tonight, and while his 6.00 ERA raises some concerns, his 3.95 FIP suggests that he’s been unlucky so far. Olson has been a strikeout pitcher in the past with a solid 9.0 K/9 rate last season, but this year, his command has been off. Olson’s advanced metrics are promising, especially his 66th percentile ground-ball rate, which should serve him well against a Royals team that has struggled to hit for power. He’ll need to avoid walks (he’s at 4.8 BB/9 this season) and keep the ball down in the zone against a Royals lineup that’s desperate for production.
Royals vs. Tigers pick, best bet
The Royals have lost 13 of their last 14 night games against teams with a winning record, and they’ve struggled on the road with a 2-7 record. Detroit, on the other hand, has covered the run line in 10 of their last 10 night games against AL Central opponents, and they’ve been playing well at home. Given Kansas City’s struggles at the plate and their poor road performance, Detroit’s offense is poised to take advantage of Lorenzen’s lack of command, while Olson should be able to limit the Royals’ weak offense.
The Tigers have been excellent at home, and their lineup, especially against right-handed pitchers, should have no trouble putting up runs against Lorenzen. Combine that with the Royals’ ongoing offensive struggles and lackluster road performance, and Detroit should come away with the win. Tigers Moneyline (-145) is the clear play here, and if you’re feeling extra confident, Detroit’s run line at +145 is also a solid option. The Tigers have been dominant at home, and with Olson showing signs of positive regression, it’s a favorable spot for Detroit to start this series strong.
Best bet: Tigers (-145) vs. Royals
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