The Rays and Red Sox square off in a pivotal game, both looking to break free from inconsistency early in the season. Tampa Bay, struggling at home, faces a Red Sox squad riding a key win but still grappling with offensive issues. With Zack Littell and Sean Newcomb on the mound, this game has all the makings of a tight matchup—one that could swing either way based on who controls the pitching. Below, I’ve got my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Wednesday night baseball game between the Rays and the Red Sox.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games each round, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Rays vs. Red Sox prediction, preview
The Rays are in the midst of a season where they need to capitalize on every opportunity, especially against a Red Sox team that’s shown flashes but remains inconsistent. Tonight, Tampa Bay comes in as the favorite, largely due to a pitching matchup that, despite Zack Littell’s struggles, still gives them the edge over Sean Newcomb. The Red Sox starter has been unreliable, posting a 4.97 ERA and a 2.13 WHIP through three starts. His inability to limit base runners has been a major issue, and his most recent outing—a six-run performance in just four innings against the White Sox—doesn’t inspire much confidence.
Newcomb may have had some success in limited appearances against the Rays, but facing Tampa Bay’s offense, led by the red-hot Jonathan Aranda (.413, three HR, 11 RBI), is no easy task. Littell, for all his faults this season (0-3, 6.88 ERA), has found a way to handle Boston before, posting a solid 2-0 record and a 2.75 ERA across 19.2 career innings. Tampa Bay’s pitching staff has been efficient overall, ranking 7th in the league with a 3.76 team ERA. With Littell’s track record against the Sox and the Rays’ stronger bullpen, Tampa Bay should have enough to keep Boston’s inconsistent offense at bay.
Newcomb’s struggles, combined with Littell’s ability to limit damage, make Tampa Bay’s chances of winning even more likely. The Rays have proven they can get it done at home, with a solid 5-1 record in their last six games against teams with losing records following a home loss. Newcomb, however, hasn’t had the same fortune and has failed to consistently hold off offenses. With the Rays coming off a loss, this is a prime opportunity for them to bounce back. Even with Littell’s rough start to the season, the matchup gives Tampa Bay a solid chance to come away with a win.
As for the total, we’re leaning toward the under of 9.0 runs, and here’s why. Both teams have shown their struggles offensively. The Red Sox, despite their occasional power from the likes of Alex Bregman (.321, four HRs, 16 RBI), have not been consistently explosive. They rank just 19th in OPS (.659) against right-handed pitchers, and their offense as a whole has been streaky. Rafael Devers’ recent slump—hitting just .222 and going 1-for-18 in his last few games—has significantly hampered their production. Boston’s lineup has been inconsistent at best, and facing Littell should only make that more pronounced. He’s allowed just a .118/.151/.275 slash line against the Sox over 51 career at-bats, meaning the Red Sox may find it difficult to string together significant rallies.
Red Sox vs. Rays pick, best bet
On the flip side, Tampa Bay’s offense, while certainly dangerous, has not been lighting up the scoreboard in a consistent manner either. With a team average of .272, they rank 10th in the AL in runs scored, but they don’t often generate explosive innings. Littell, despite his struggles this season, should be able to limit the Red Sox’s offensive output. Meanwhile, Newcomb’s inability to shut down opponents makes it difficult to see either team putting up double-digit runs. With both teams dealing with offensive inconsistencies, this game is shaping up to stay under 9.0 runs, and with the way both pitchers have been up and down, it’s tough to see a barrage of runs coming.
In the end, Tampa Bay’s edge on the mound, paired with a Red Sox offense that can’t seem to find its rhythm, makes them the more reliable pick. Newcomb’s lack of command will be the deciding factor here, and Littell, despite his early struggles, should do just enough to keep the Red Sox from running away with it. Look for a Rays victory and a relatively low-scoring affair, as we take Tampa Bay on the Moneyline and lean strongly toward the under.
Best bet: Rays ML (-142) vs. Red Sox
This one’s all about Aranda, really, so back him to buoy the Rays with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
Strong lean: Rays vs. Red Sox u9 total runs (-102)
Nine seems to be a number I’m shying away from today; care to join me here and in Cincinnati?
